OPEC+ Raises Quotas, Sidesteps UAE Exit

OPEC+ raised oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June, in a move analysts say was designed to project stability after the sudden withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The increase was agreed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Oman, but the official statement made no mention of the UAE, which quit the alliance three days earlier.

Analyst Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said the silence reflected tense relations: “By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability.”

However, the quota hike may have little real impact. Exports from Gulf producers remain constrained by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global crude shipments, following U.S.-Israeli strikes in February.

OPEC+ output has already fallen short of quotas, with March production at 27.68 million bpd against a quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of about 9 million barrels largely due to war-related disruptions.

Analyst Amena Bakr of Kpler described the UAE’s exit as “a big deal,” noting its ambition to raise output to 5 million bpd by 2027, far above its last quota of 3.5 million. State oil firm ADNOC pledged $55bn in new projects over the next two years.

The departure raises concerns that other members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, could follow, given repeated accusations of exceeding quotas.

Despite the turmoil, OPEC+ insists it still “calls the shots” in global oil markets, using quota adjustments as a signal of continuity even as physical supply remains constrained.