Dangote Petrol Rollout: What’s Next for Nigeria? By Rabi Ummi Umar

Alhaji Aliko Dangote envisioned ending Nigeria’s reliance on fuel importation and making Sub-Saharan Africa self-sufficient in energy. This vision led to the construction of the world’s largest single-train refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day facility located in Lagos State.

Just days before President Muhammadu Buhari handed over power to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he commissioned the Dangote Refinery as a parting gift to Nigerians. This event has since become a topic of widespread discussion.

While some Nigerians appreciated Buhari’s gesture as a significant legacy project, others viewed it as a last-minute attempt to redeem his administration’s eight-year tenure, which ended on a controversial note, especially after the naira redesign policy and its aftermath.

As time passed without any petroleum products from the refinery being made available, initial excitement gave way to skepticism. However, when hope was rekindled, controversies began to surface regarding the supply of crude oil to the refinery and its subsequent refining process.

Amid these controversies, Dangote Group’s Chief Executive Officer, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, publicly accused the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), International Oil Companies (IOCs), and a global cartel in the energy sector of denying him crude oil supplies, thereby sabotaging his efforts to make Nigeria energy-sufficient.

In what appeared to be an act of frustration, Dangote offered to sell his refinery to the nation. This move sparked widespread debate on social media, with many Nigerians expressing surprise that even the richest man in Africa is not immune to the country’s challenges. The situation raised questions about whether those in power genuinely want the country to succeed. However, this phase ended with President Tinubu’s intervention, directing the NNPCL to sell crude oil in naira to the refinery.

In another twist, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) raised concerns about the refinery’s petroleum having excessive sulfur content, opening another chapter for debate. After much back and forth, the National Assembly stepped in to investigate the acquisition.

Despite these hurdles, the refinery began test runs for petrol production on August 23rd and officially rolled out petrol on September 3rd, 2024, over a year after its launch in May 2023. This marks the end of an old chapter and the beginning of a new one.

At the press conference for the official rollout, Dangote declared, “It’s a celebration day for Nigerians,” while assuring citizens that they will “now have good petrol, and the engines of your vehicles will last longer. You will not have engine issues, which many of us were facing. It won’t happen at all.”

He added that the fuel quality will match that of any global standard and promised that the refinery would help revive industry and manufacturing. With real import substitution, Nigeria would save foreign exchange, earn foreign exchange, stabilize the naira, and potentially bring down inflation and the cost of living.

As Nigeria grapples with fuel scarcity and rising prices in recent weeks, the Dangote Refinery’s rollout offers a glimmer of hope. Yet, questions linger: Will the refinery’s production bring relief from fuel scarcity? How soon will it impact the forex market? Will the naira stabilize or even appreciate against the dollar?

While citizens await the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to establish a new pricing structure for petrol produced at the Dangote Refinery, Nigerians are left asking: What’s next?

Rabi Ummi Umar is an intern at IMPR and a student of Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin. She can be reached via [email protected].