 has cut its 2026 net profit forecast for airlines to $100m, down from the $200m projection.){kind=link}
IATA Cuts African Airlines’ 2026 Profit Forecast to $100m
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cut its 2026 net profit forecast for African airlines to $100 million, down from the $200 million projection in December 2025.
The latest outlook shows profits falling from $300 million in 2025, with margins compressing to 0.2% in 2026 compared to 1.6% last year. Earnings per passenger are expected to drop sharply to $0.40, down from $2.10.
Despite this, passenger demand is forecast to grow by 10% in 2026, outpacing 2025’s 9.8% growth, highlighting the paradox of rising traffic but weaker profitability.
Capacity growth is lagging, with airlines expected to expand by 7.7% in 2026, below the 8.7% recorded in 2025, leaving carriers struggling to match demand.
Globally, IATA projects airline revenue at $1.165 trillion in 2026, but net profit will fall to $23bn, with margins halved to 2.0%. The Middle East is expected to swing into a $4.3bn loss, while Europe and North America will remain profitable but at reduced levels.
African carriers face sustained cost pressures from jet fuel volatility, currency weakness, poor infrastructure, and limited financing access. IATA noted that Nigeria’s airlines are especially vulnerable due to limited hedging practices and FX constraints.
The report also highlighted the role of the Dangote Refinery, which became the world’s largest jet fuel exporter in April 2026, reshaping supply dynamics amid global energy disruptions.
In response to soaring fuel costs, Nigeria’s government introduced a 30% relief on statutory airline charges and set indicative Jet A1 prices in Lagos between ₦1,760 and ₦1,988 per litre, though airlines continue to cut routes and raise fares to cope.