Rewane Sees NGX Market Cap Surging to N262trn in 2026

Economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange Limited will hit about N262tn in 2026 and move higher in the subsequent years, driven by big-ticket listings.

Rewane said this on Thursday at the annual Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 held in Ikoyi, Lagos.

Economic Confidential reports that the NGX market capitalisation and benchmark index on Thursday rose by 0.12 per cent to N91.107tn and 143,239.23 points, respectively. This is the second day of positive trading this week.

Speaking at the event, Rewane projected that the market cap will rise further to N393tn as of the full year 2027 and N590tn by 2028.

“Today, we will be discussing Nigeria’s multidimensional global economy, key indicators, economic structure, global trends, and what we should be paying attention to. We’ll focus on five critical indicators, starting with the stock market. Stock market capitalisation today is around N90–91tn. Our projection is that it will reach N262tn. What could drive such a movement from about 20 per cent of GDP to roughly 80 per cent of GDP? New listings, improved earnings, and increased efficiencies.

The Dangote Refinery alone, valued at roughly $32bn, could significantly alter the picture when its earnings are factored in. NNPC is also expected to list. These variables will drive performance.

“Nigeria’s GDP is now estimated at $250bn after revision. The aspiration is $1tn by 2030. We don’t think that’s realistic, but certain adjustments will drive performance. The stock market is a major source of savings, capital raising, and a reflection of corporate performance.

It should make us optimistic.”

As it relates to the Monetary Policy Rate, the FDC boss said, “Interest rate outlook. Interest rates can’t be separated from inflation and money supply. The CBN surprised many by keeping rates unchanged recently, partly due to concerns around unstable inflation. Unstable inflation, fear of rising prices, is more influential than historical inflation. A day after Nigeria held rates steady, Ghana cut theirs sharply. Ghana’s economy, driven heavily by gold, is benefiting from rising gold prices. Nigeria is driven by oil, whose price outlook is weaker, which explains the divergence. We expect interest rates in Nigeria to decline, though not as sharply as Ghana’s. Political risk also differs between the countries.

“The inflation outlook for 2026 is around 12.7 per cent, rising to 15.3 per cent in 2027, before easing again (13.8 per cent in 2028). This is influenced by money supply growth, petrol and diesel price expectations, food inflation due to insecurity, and exchange rate pressures. We project the exchange rate around N1,450–N1,500 with some luck. External reserves must be viewed in the context of debt. The recent rise in reserves was due to the Eurobond issuance.”

Rewane, who also called for the creation of a working economy for Nigerians, noted that remittances remain a big deal. “Minimum wage increases abroad and labour market shifts can influence diaspora inflows. AI-driven displacement affects immigrants first, so we need to build an economy that works for Nigerians here. Total factor productivity is another major variable. Potential GDP vs real GDP matters. Capital stock growth of five per cent is significant, and investor confidence is improving; foreign or local, investors care only about returns.

“Nigeria’s economy today is $250bn. Net exports are $24bn and drive every other factor. Government expenditure’s dominance matters more than the quantum. Investment is $64bn, and Dangote Refinery alone contributes nearly half of that. This shapes total-factor productivity. Even with four per cent growth, getting to a $1tn economy is unrealistic. But we must aim high to land among the stars.”

In his comments at the event, the Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Oluseye Olusoga, highlighted the need to stop looking at Nigeria in a silo.

“We need to look at Africa as a continent and see Nigeria as part of a larger African market. Nigeria is leading on AfCFTA, and that is something we all need to take advantage of. We’ve seen a lot of public sector engagement, but almost nothing from the private sector. When you go to places like Lomé or the Benin Republic, you’ll find that they regularly take advantage of AfCFTA from an industrialisation perspective. If we’re not careful, we’ll end up transferring wealth to other African regions because they see Nigeria as a huge market, they can effortlessly access.

“From a banking perspective, we all need to recognise that the world is changing. Nigeria has a role to play; if we don’t play it, nature abhors a vacuum, and others will take advantage. The government has made significant reforms over the last 18 months, many of them positive, and the economy has stabilised. However, what confronts us now is security, and investment only follows security. Without security, investment will not come. I challenge everyone here to take advantage of where we are. Security is not solely the job of the government; it’s also our collective responsibility. The theme today is apt. Part of the security challenge is that many people don’t feel they are prospering. Let’s think about our neighbours, about how we can provide jobs, and about how we can lift one another up. The banking sector must support that growth and help build new businesses and industries to create jobs for Nigeria’s emerging youth. That will also help reduce security issues,” he said.

The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Taiwo Oyedele, in his comments on a panel session, reiterated the benefits of the tax reforms championed by his committee for vulnerable Nigerians.

Key measures that Oyedele highlighted include the reform that allows investors to claim FX losses on capital gains, exemptions for gains below N150m annually, resetting gains for reinvested funds, and eliminating taxes on bonus shares and share transfers. Beginning next year, corporate tax rates will drop from 30 per cent to 25 per cent, small businesses under N100m turnover will pay zero per cent corporate tax, and 98 per cent of workers will see reductions or removal of their PAYE tax. Essential items such as food, education, health, rent, and transportation will shift to zero per cent VAT with full input credit, significantly lowering consumer costs.

He maintained that the reforms aim to boost disposable income for 90 per cent of Nigerians, enhance market stability, attract long-term capital, and reverse the exit of foreign investors that contributed to FX pressures.

“As part of the broader reform, starting January next year, companies will see their corporate tax rate reduced from 30 per cent to 25 per cent. Anywhere else in the world, that would be headline news that excites the market. In Nigeria, it barely moves sentiment. Yet that reduction is worth N1.5tn based on 2024 collections. Another major change: from next year, companies will be able to claim input VAT credits on their assets, services, and overheads. Service companies have never had this before. That is worth N3.4tn based on 2024 figures, also good news.

“We should be excited about these reforms. We’ve taken away withholding tax on bonus shares, removed stamp duty on share transfers, and eliminated minimum tax on turnover and capital for businesses. These are reforms the capital market has demanded for decades. On PAYE: 98 per cent of workers in the private and public sectors will either see a reduction or complete removal of their PAYE from next year. The top 2 per cent, mostly the people in this room, will see a slight increase depending on income level. If you earn N2m or N3m a month, you won’t feel the difference. You only hit the 25 per cent top rate when you earn around N20m a month. And if you earn N2m or more monthly, you are already in the top two per cent in Nigeria.”

Using the example of a loaf of bread, Oyedele said, “Today it is VAT-exempt, meaning bakers don’t charge VAT but still bear VAT on input equipment, distribution, phone bills, and even sugar. They embed that VAT into the price. From next year, bread will be zero-rated. That means bakers charge zero per cent VAT and recover all VAT paid on inputs. That’s a big deal. We’ve done the same for education. From next year, schools will be zero-rated, allowing them to claim all input VAT.”

Meanwhile, the chairperson of the African Finance Corporation, Mrs Ireti Samuel-Ogbu, called for safety nets for vulnerable Nigerians as the reforms gain traction.

“Generally, the macroeconomic reforms have been incredible. We have seen GDP increase, and we have seen the current account increase. We have seen the FX rate stabilise, and the difference between the parallel rates and the official rates has really narrowed down to about 15 per cent. We have seen inflation come down; we have seen FX reserves increase tenfold. Everywhere you look, there have been fantastic reforms, but I think the biggest issue today, as we are talking about reforms that are inclusive, is that these reforms have crystallised into 61 per cent of our population being declared multidimensionally poor.

“That is a large number of people who cannot participate in the economy. They are not only poor, but they are also financially excluded. These are the people who are more likely to be impacted by the food inflation. We cannot talk about reforms and inclusion without talking about the safety net because it means half of the population cannot participate.”

The Managing Director of Parthian Pensions, Mr Olufemi Odukoya, spoke on the latest reforms introduced by the National Pension Commission and their impact on infrastructure funding.

He said, “The reforms introduced by the DG (of PenCom) speak directly to infrastructure. It was increased across all the funds from 10 per cent of your portfolio to 21 per cent. That tells you the impact. It was also included for private equities.”