SPECIAL REPORT: What Nigeria’s Economic Numbers Really Say About 2025
Lawal Dahiru Mamman
As Nigeria navigates major reforms across various sectors of its economy, the country has had to adapt to the current realities.
As the year draws to a close, Economic Confidential presents some of the major economic stories that have been shaped by reforms in non-oil sectors, deliberate policy initiatives, unforeseen events, and improvements in macroeconomic stability.
Rebasing Economy
Nigeria rebased its economy in 2025, using 2019 as the new base year instead of 2010. It aim was to improve economic planning, increase competitiveness and better representation of underrepresented sectors.
This update reflects the country’s economic growth and structural changes, including the rise of emerging sectors like digital economy, modular refineries, real estate and social insurance schemes.
The rebased GDP now stands at N372.82 trillion, representing a 41.7% increase. This change provides picture of Nigeria’s economic performance and highlights areas of growth.
GDP Growth
After the rebasing exercise, Nigeria’s GDP is increased modestly by 3.4% in 2025.
This figure is supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in Finance and Insurance, ICT, Construction, and Real Estate sectors.
Decreasing Inflation
Headline inflation decreased significantly from 34.80% in December 2024 to 14% in November 2025.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this is th 8th consecutive decline in the last one year.
Aviation: Dry Lease and Others
Nigeria has signed agreements to access dry-leased aircraft, reducing operational costs and expanding fleet capacity for local airlines. This is expected to increase flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and increased capacity for airlines, with less financial burden.
Nigeria was also removed from the Cape Town Convention aircraft leasing risk list, enabling local airlines to access low-cost, long-term aircraft financing.
The Nigeria International Air Show event took place from December 2-4, 2025, in Abuja, bringing together global aviation stakeholders to foster innovation, safety, and international cooperation.
Dangote-PENGASSAN Dispute
The dispute between Dangote and Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) is made headline.
PENGASSAN went at odds with Dangote Refinery over the alleged unfair treatment of Nigerian workers, including the termination of over 800 employees who joined the union.
Tax Reforms
President Tinubu signed four major tax reform bills into law in June 2025, aimed at modernising the tax system, enhancing revenue generation, and reducing compliance burdens for small businesses.
The four laws expected to take effect from January 1, 2026 include l, Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill.
Naira Stability and Foreign Reserves
Coordinated monetary and fiscal policies led to improved foreign exchange (FX) liquidity and stability for the Naira. Foreign exchange reserves increased significantly, reaching over $43 billion by October 2025, the highest in almost four years.
Naira now trades around N1,440–N1,500 per US$1 in November 2025, with a narrowed gap between official and parallel market rates.
Monetary Policy Rate
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) began to ease its aggressive tightening cycle in September 2025, cutting the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 27.0%, a significant move after sustained rate hikes.
This was followed by retaining the rate at 27.0% in November 2025 as inflation continued to moderate.
Bank Recapitalisation
The also CBN initiated a bank recapitalisation plan, requiring commercial banks to meet new minimum capital requirements (e.g., ₦500 billion for international licenses).
The CBN reported that the banking sector remained sound and many banks were on track to meet these requirements by year-end.
Nigeria’s Debt Stock
As 2025 comes to end, public debt stock continues to increase. Recently, a notable increase was recorded with figures rising from N149.38 trillion (equivalent to 97.23 billion dollars) in the first quarter of 2025 to N152.39 trillion (99.65 billion dollars) in the second quarter of the same year.
This represents a 2.01% growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, as revealed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt Report for Q2 2025.
FG-GenCos Disagreement
Another major event in 2025 is when the power generation companies (GenCos) raised alarm over a staggering N4 trillion owed to them by the federal government—N1.9 trillion in legacy debts and N2 trillion for power supplied in 2024 alone.
President Bola Tinubu admitted government liability, but insisted only verifiable claims would be honoured. By August, Finance Minister Wale Edun confirmed plans to clear the debts, signalling tacit acknowledgement.