Operators Warn of Collapse if Aviation Fuel Hits N3,000

Nigeria’s airlines are bracing for a sharp rise in airfares after the cost of aviation fuel (Jet A1) surged by more than 100%, driven by the Middle East crisis that has disrupted global crude oil supply.

Before the conflict, Jet A1 sold for ₦900–₦995 per litre, but prices have now spiked to ₦2,500–₦2,700, depending on the airport of delivery, making fuel the dominant cost driver for carriers.

Operators say ticket prices may soon double if the trend continues. Aviation fuel, which typically accounts for 30–35% of airline costs, has now risen to about 45%, leaving carriers with little choice but to adjust fares.

The spokesperson for United Nigeria Airlines, Chibuike Uloka, urged the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) to engage airlines on pricing sustainability.

He noted that despite fuel crossing ₦2,000 per litre, many carriers still maintain fares around ₦195,000, a situation he warned cannot last.

Uloka cautioned that if fuel prices hit ₦3,000 per litre, some airlines may collapse under the pressure, shrinking capacity and pushing fares even higher.

“What we are asking now is not even profit, but at least to be able to operate optimally,” he said.

Industry expert Samuel Caulcrick explained that fuel costs have overtaken maintenance as the largest expense for airlines.

“If that component goes up, it will definitely affect the prices of every seat. We should expect airfares to go up by 20 to 25 per cent in the coming days,” he projected.

The crisis has also exposed Nigeria’s supply challenges, with the Dangote Refinery forced to import crude due to insufficient local production.

Brent crude has surged to $112 per barrel, far above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $65–$69.

Analysts warn that sustained increases in fuel costs will inevitably be passed on to passengers, raising transport fares and commodity prices nationwide, while further complicating the fragile economics of Nigeria’s aviation sector.