The Northern Poor and Tinubu’s Economic Reforms: When Renewed Hope Becomes Renewed Hardship
By Baba El-Yakubu
In a depiction worth a thousand words, Daily Trust cartoonist Mustapha Bulama, captured the reality of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms. One side shows the President gleefully smiling, while the other shows him disapprovingly frowning – both in response to World Bank Report released last week. The reforms — hailed internationally as bold and necessary — has delivered a painful paradox for millions of Nigerians, especially the poor in the North. The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report of October 8, 2025, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” paints a grim picture of worsening poverty, rising inflation, and eroded purchasing power despite claims of macroeconomic stability. While the reforms may have corrected past policy missteps and helped Nigeria avoid a looming fiscal crisis, their social cost has been devastating. The removal of petrol subsidy (raising prices from about ₦250 to nearly ₦900 per litre), foreign exchange liberalization, and tax recalibration have all contributed to surging living costs. Inflation, especially food inflation, has pushed basic survival out of reach for many families. T-Pain is real.
In 2023, the northern poor wondered about the meaning of the emblem on President Bola Tinubu’s cap. Today, they know that it is a shackle symbolizing renewed hardship. According to the World Bank, the number of poor Nigerians rose from 81 million in 2019 (40% of the population) to 139 million in 2025, representing 61% of the population. By next year, the figure could reach 141 million, with the poverty rate stabilizing around 61–62% through 2027. Tragically, the majority of these poor Nigerians live in the northern region. The northern states — already grappling with insecurity, weak infrastructure, low industrial base, and fragile education systems — are now witnessing an unprecedented erosion of livelihoods. The reforms, though nationally intended to restore fiscal balance, have translated into a harsher economic reality for ordinary northern households. Food prices have skyrocketed, transport costs have multiplied, and small businesses dependent on cheap energy and stable exchange rates have collapsed. For millions of subsistence farmers in Kano, petty traders in Azare, artisans in Jos, and low-income earners throughout the North, the so-called “Renewed Hope Agenda” has so far brought Renewed Hardship.
The World Bank report warned that while macroeconomic indicators may be stabilizing, the benefits have not “reached the people.” It described the recovery as “timid” and insufficient to reverse the devastating loss of livelihoods in the next two years. This situation is particularly acute in the North, where poverty levels are highest and economic diversification is weakest. Northern Nigeria contributes significantly to the national population and holds about 70% of Nigeria’s arable land but lags far behind in economic opportunities. The region’s heavy dependence on fuel and transport-sensitive activities has magnified the negative effects of subsidy removal. Commuting to the farm, irrigation, and harrowing, all require fuel. Rural markets now experience low consumer turnout, while urban centers face rising unemployment and informal sector collapse.
The reforms’ benefits are unevenly distributed — stabilizing fiscal metrics in Abuja and Lagos, but destabilizing kitchens in Kano, Katsina, and Maiduguri. A poor nursing mother in Damaturu may hear you say, ‘Renewed Hope,’ but her crying baby reflects Renewed Hardship.
Interestingly, the same World Bank report revealed a significant fiscal development: for the first time in recent history, state governments collectively received more revenue from the Federation Account than the Federal Government. In 2024, states got ₦5.3 trillion compared to the Federal Government’s ₦5 trillion. This windfall, largely a result of palliative funds and debt refunds, creates an opportunity — and a moral obligation — for state governments to cushion the suffering of their citizens.
If the federal reforms have strained livelihoods, state governments must now act as shock absorbers. They must design and implement poor-friendly economic policies tailored to their local contexts — from targeted food subsidies, youth empowerment programs, and small-scale industrial support, to improved agricultural productivity and social safety nets. States in the North, flush with increased allocations, can no longer hide behind federal excuses. They must invest strategically in agriculture value chains, rural infrastructure, and skills training to stimulate local economies and reduce dependence on federal interventions.
Behind every percentage point of inflation or poverty is a family in Yola unable to eat, a child dropping out of school in Gusau, a farmer unable to afford fertilizer in Lokoja, and a widow among the industrious people of Bida, losing her small business to rising costs. These are not abstract economic effects — they are human tragedies unfolding across the North. In Lagos, the statistics may invoke pity; in northern cities and towns, they confirm known reality.
Unless immediate corrective actions are taken, Nigeria risks deepening its regional inequalities, sowing the seeds of future instability. Last week, I had a four-day assignment in Ibadan. Every day around 8 a.m., I commuted from the city to a university on the outskirts along the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway. I used the opportunity to observe my subjects – people going about their daily businesses. I couldn’t help comparing it with similar scenes in Kano City. The tale of the two cities is very revealing. Ibadan is cleaner, has more orderly traffic, fewer potholes on the road and complete absence of Almajiri on the street. The number of manufacturing and other companies along the Expressway is staggering. The relatively higher prosperity of Ibadan over Kano is glaring. Inadvertently, I conducted a non-scientific field experiment on the economic disparity between the Southwest and the Northwest. This disparity must be considered for any sustainable economic adjustment in Nigeria. For the north, the economic reforms without social protection are like medicine without dosage — potentially curative, but immediately harmful.
President Tinubu’s reforms may indeed have been unavoidable to avert economic collapse. However, their hasty and poorly sequenced implementation has placed unbearable pressure on the most vulnerable citizens — particularly in Northern Nigeria. The federal government must retool its approach to prioritize human welfare alongside fiscal balance. At the same time, Northern state governments must seize this moment — not to spend recklessly, but to invest wisely in policies that directly improve the lives of their people. From food security initiatives to localized micro-credit programs and urban employment schemes, the path to recovery must be people-centered.
Reform without inclusion breeds resentment. And unless Nigeria’s economic transformation translates into tangible relief for its northern poor, the promise of “Renewed Hope” will remain, for millions, a renewed hardship or a distant dream.
Baba El-Yakubu is a Professor of Chemical Engineering at Ahmadu Bello University Email: [email protected]