Nigeria’s Economy Significantly Larger After GDP Rebasing, New Data Reveals
Nigeria’s economy is far larger and more diversified than previously understood, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding from N54.2 trillion to a staggering N205.1 trillion in 2019. This significant revision comes after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) successfully completed a comprehensive rebasing exercise, updating the country’s economic calculations to better reflect its current structure.
The new figures, with 2019 as the base year, reveal a substantial 41.7% increase in nominal GDP estimates compared to the previous base year of 2010. This rebasing, a globally recognized best practice, incorporates emerging industries, technological advancements, and shifts in consumption and production patterns that have reshaped Nigeria’s economic landscape.
Key Economic Shifts Highlighted by Rebasing
The rebased GDP figures paint a new picture of Nigeria’s economic drivers. Crop Production now leads as the highest contributor among economic activities at 17.58%, closely followed by Trade at 17.42%. Real Estate has climbed to the third position at 10.78%, notably surpassing Crude Oil and Natural Gas, which now stands at 5.85%. This shift is partly attributed to improved coverage of informal economic activities. The Services sector remains the dominant broad sector, contributing a significant 53.09% to GDP in 2019, up from 52.60% in previous estimates. Agriculture follows at 25.83%, and Industries at 21.08%.
“The rebasing exercise is a significant milestone in our ongoing effort to provide accurate, timely, and internationally comparable economic statistics,” stated the NBS in its announcement. “It ensures that our economic statistics provide a more accurate reflection of the current economic environment.”
Methodology and Expanded Coverage
The NBS undertook an extensive process to rebase the GDP, aligning with recommendations from the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA). This involved developing a new Supply and Use Table (SUT) covering 217 products across 46 economic activities and conducting comprehensive data collection through various surveys, including the National Living Standards Survey and the National Business Sample Census. The exercise also incorporated previously underrepresented or excluded sectors such as digital economic activities, informal economic activities, creative industries, and fintech. Additionally, price structures were updated to reflect current market realities, and extensive consultations were held with experts from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and other partners to ensure adherence to global best practices.
Growth Trajectory and Q1 2025 Estimates
The rebased data also provides a clearer view of economic growth. After a challenging -6.96% real GDP growth in 2020, the economy saw an improvement to 0.95% in 2021. Higher growth rates of 4.32% and 3.04% were recorded in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with 2024 showing a real GDP growth rate of 3.38%.
Looking ahead, the NBS also released estimates for Q1 2025, indicating continued positive momentum. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.13% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, an increase from 2.27% in Q1 2024. This growth was primarily propelled by the Services sector, which expanded by 4.33% and contributed 57.50% to the aggregate GDP. The Agriculture sector showed positive growth of 0.07% (from -1.79% in Q1 2024), while the Industry sector grew by 3.42% (from 2.35% in Q1 2024).
The NBS emphasized its commitment to transparency and data integrity, assuring the public that detailed methodological notes and other input reports will be made available on its website.
By PRNigeria