Nigeria to Overtake South Africa, Become Continent’s Largest Contributor to Global GDP – IMF

‎
‎Nigeria is projected to overtake South Africa as Africa’s largest contributor to global economic growth in 2026, according to new estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
‎
‎The projection, reported by Business Insider Africa, shows that Nigeria will account for about 1.5 per cent of global real GDP growth in 2026, placing the country among the top 10 contributors to global economic expansion worldwide.
‎
‎The IMF ranking positions Nigeria ahead of South Africa and several other emerging economies, with only countries such as China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam expected to contribute more to global growth during the period.
‎
‎Analysts attribute Nigeria’s improved outlook to recent macroeconomic reforms, including the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, the removal of fuel subsidies, and ongoing fiscal adjustments aimed at restoring investor confidence.
‎
‎Despite persistent structural challenges, the IMF projects Nigeria’s growth momentum to remain stronger than that of South Africa, where economic expansion continues to be weighed down by energy supply constraints, logistics inefficiencies and weaker industrial output.
‎
‎While South Africa is still expected to retain a higher nominal GDP than Nigeria in absolute terms, the IMF notes that Nigeria’s population size, expanding private sector activity and reform-driven recovery are giving it greater weight in global growth calculations.
‎
‎The forecast underscores a broader shift in the global economy, with emerging and developing countries increasingly driving world growth, even as advanced economies experience slower expansion.
‎
‎The IMF cautioned, however, that sustaining Nigeria’s growth trajectory will depend on deepening reforms, improving infrastructure, and addressing inflationary pressures to ensure that projected gains translate into broad-based economic development.