Jet Fuel Recovery Will Take Months Despite Hormuz Reopening – IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that global jet fuel supply may take months to recover even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the US‑Iran ceasefire agreement.

Director‑General Willie Walsh disclosed this to reporters in Singapore, stressing that disruptions to refining capacity in the Middle East will prolong shortages.

“If it (the Strait of Hormuz) were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” Walsh said.

He added that the current crisis is more comparable to shocks such as 9/11 and the Global Financial Crisis than to COVID‑19.

Walsh noted that airlines across Asia are already adjusting operations by cutting flights, carrying extra fuel, and adding refuelling stops. He said these measures reflect the severity of supply constraints and the expected slow pace of recovery.

IATA further explained that while crude oil prices may decline after the reopening, jet fuel costs are likely to remain elevated. Gulf carriers may face temporary capacity reductions, which cannot be fully replaced by airlines outside the region, leaving short‑term gaps.

Countries such as India and Nigeria could increase refined product output to ease pressure, while other producers may gradually ramp up production once crude flows stabilise. Elevated refining margins are expected to incentivise more jet fuel production globally, though the adjustment will take time.

The US and Iran recently agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, including plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20 percent of global energy shipments. The closure had sharply impacted aviation, with jet fuel prices in Nigeria rising from N950–N1,000 per litre before the conflict to over N2,000 per litre.

Industry experts warn that despite falling crude prices, jet fuel costs may remain high until refining capacity and supply chains fully recover. Walsh emphasised that restoring balance will be gradual, with airlines and consumers likely to feel the impact for months.