‎Headline Inflation Expected to Ease to 16.84% in October

‎Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to ease further to 16.84 percent year-on-year in October 2025, down from 18.02 percent in September, reflecting a 1.18 percentage point decline, according to the Access Bank Economic Intelligence Unit.

‎The report attributed the sustained moderation in inflation to stability in the foreign exchange market and improved food supplies arising from the ongoing main harvest season across major crop-producing regions of the country.

‎It further noted that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 2.1 points to 129.8 points in October 2025, compared to the preceding month, indicating continued but moderated price growth across key expenditure categories.

‎According to Access Bank’s analysts, the projection was derived using an autoregressive model, incorporating lags of the composite CPI alongside survey-based inflation expectations. The methodology aligns with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) framework, ensuring consistency in product definitions and data comparability.

‎ ‎The report concluded that inflation is likely to moderate further in the near term, supported by improved domestic production, stable exchange rate conditions, and fiscal measures aimed at easing supply constraints in the food and energy sectors.