GDP Rebasing: Between Data-driven Euphoria and Economic Reality, by Zekeri Laruba Idakwo

When Nigeria last rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014, the world took notice. With a single statistical update, the nation’s economy seemingly doubled in size—vaulting from $270 billion to $510 billion. The headlines were celebratory: “Africa’s Largest Economy,”“Nigeria Overtakes South Africa,” “Economic Giant Emerges.”

However, beneath the surface of data-driven euphoria lay deep-seated issues, poverty, unemployment, and economic inequality. Critics argued that the rebasing painted a false picture, glossing over the lived realities of millions of Nigerians.

Today, under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria once again finds itself navigating a precarious economic transition. With consequences of fuel subsidy removal and floating of the Naira staring the masses in the face. As conversations about another round of GDP rebasing gain traction, there are critical lessons to draw from the past, and stark realities to confront in the present.

Here are seven key facts that reflect the intersection between data, governance, and public experience under the Tinubu administration:

1. Reform Messaging vs. Economic Reality

Just like in 2014, the Tinubu administration has leaned heavily on optimistic economic forecasts. From statements about “long-term gains” to growth projections driven by non-oil exports, government messaging focuses on numbers. However, the street-level experience tells a different story: widespread inflation, hunger, and economic anxiety.

2. Subsidy Removal and the Cost-of-Living Crisis

The removal of fuel subsidies, though economically justified—has triggered steep hikes in transportation, food, and basic services. Millions of Nigerians now spend a disproportionate amount of their income on daily essentials. This has deepened inequality, even as government officials speak of “market correction” and “fiscal discipline.”

3. Currency Liberalisation and Naira Volatility

The decision to float the naira was framed as a bold move toward market realism. In practice, it has led to exchange rate instability and worsened inflationary pressures. While technocrats present charts of exchange market “convergence,” ordinary Nigerians experience erosion of purchasing power and business uncertainty.

4. Rising Poverty Despite Growth Projections

Despite claims of projected GDP growth, more than 60% of Nigerians still live in multidimensional poverty. For the average citizen, statistical growth is meaningless without access to quality education, healthcare, electricity, and jobs. Prosperity on paper has not translated into food on the table.

5. Public Distrust in Government Communication

As in 2014, there is growing skepticism around government narratives. State officials talk about “economic recovery,” but citizens see empty supermarkets, high transport fares, and crumbling infrastructure. The gap between official optimism and public hardship continues to erode trust.

6. The Danger of Statistical Spin

While GDP rebasing is a legitimate statistical exercise, meant to better reflect emerging sectors like tech, e-commerce, and the digital economy, there is concern it could once again be used to polish Nigeria’s image without addressing underlying weaknesses. Economists warn that data should guide reform, not distract from it.

7. The Demand for Tangible Results

Nigerians are no longer swayed by economic jargon or inflated statistics. What the public wants are visible improvements: stable power, affordable food, working hospitals, and functioning schools. The Tinubu administration’s long-term credibility hinges not on data dashboards, but on delivering concrete, everyday results.

If Nigeria proceeds with another GDP rebasing, it must be grounded in transparency, realism, and public interest. The Tinubu government has an opportunity to break from the past, by aligning statistical optimism with human-centered policies. Real growth, after all, is not just a number, it is something people feel.

Last Line

The Tinubu administration has done well to increase minimum wage for workers and corps members’ allowance. He has also set the country in motion towards restructuring, fiscal federalism and local government autonomy. He has also ensured states and local government authorities have been getting unprecedented sums of money from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC). This is meant to empower the states with adequate resources to be able to meet their obligations.

The President is also paying student loans and making life easy for parents and education easy for the Nigerian youths.

This administration must work its socks off to ensure that by 2027, majority of Nigerians can beat their chests and say their lives are better off than it was in 2023.