Foreign Trade Surges, Surplus Hits ₦6.7trn in Q3 2025
Nigeria’s foreign trade has grown strongly under President Bola Tinubu, with exports rising, total trade expanding and trade surpluses recorded every quarter since mid 2023.
New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that by the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s total trade reached ₦38.93 trillion, while the trade surplus widened to ₦6.69 trillion, one of the strongest positions in recent years.
Many economists link this performance to the impact of naira volatility on imports. Historically, when the naira is devalued or weakens, imports tend to fall almost immediately, although export responses depend on policy and other economic factors. In the short term, currency movements have a strong effect on Nigeria’s import levels.
A review of the figures shows a sharp rise in trade since the start of the Tinubu administration. In Q2 2023, total trade stood at ₦12.74 trillion, with exports of ₦6.44 trillion and imports of ₦6.30 trillion. This left a small surplus of ₦0.13 trillion.
By Q3 2023, exports rose to ₦10.35 trillion while imports stood at ₦9.04 trillion, pushing the surplus to ₦1.32 trillion. Trade growth became even stronger in 2024. In Q1 2024, exports surged to ₦19.18 trillion, imports rose to ₦14.75 trillion, and the surplus expanded sharply to ₦4.43 trillion.
In Q2 2024, exports increased further to ₦17.71 trillion while imports dipped slightly to ₦13.96 trillion, producing a surplus of ₦3.75 trillion. By Q3 2024, exports climbed to ₦20.54 trillion, imports were ₦15.28 trillion, and the surplus reached ₦5.23 trillion, the highest that year.
The momentum continued into 2025. In Q1 2025, exports expanded to ₦20.60 trillion, imports were ₦15.43 trillion and the surplus stood at ₦5.17 trillion. In Q2 2025, exports jumped to ₦22.75 trillion against imports of ₦15.29 trillion, pushing the surplus to a record ₦7.46 trillion.
By Q3 2025, exports edged up to ₦22.81 trillion while imports rose to ₦16.12 trillion. Total trade climbed to ₦38.93 trillion, with a strong surplus of ₦6.69 trillion.
Analysts say the weaker naira has likely boosted non oil exports and reduced imports, at least in the short term. Oil exporters also benefit when currency depreciation coincides with higher global oil prices.
Commenting on the figures, Director General of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the steady trade surpluses reflect policy changes and broader economic adjustments, not just a deep shift in export structure.
“The data show a strong rise in trade values, largely driven by exchange rate liberalisation and higher oil export earnings in the near term,” Yusuf said.
He added that while the surplus is good news, much of the export growth still remains oil based, and Nigeria is heavily dependent on imports. Rising imports in 2024 and 2025 also point to improving domestic demand.
“The key challenge is turning these big trade numbers into real economic gains by diversifying exports, strengthening manufacturing, improving logistics and reducing import dependence,” Yusuf said.