Crude Oil Earnings Fall 14% to $31.5bn in 2025

Nigeria earned $31.54bn from crude oil exports in 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report, marking a 14.41% decline from $36.85bn in 2024.

The drop came despite higher crude oil production, with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reporting 530.41 million barrels produced in 2025, up from 408.68 million in 2024.

However, combined crude and condensate output of 599.64 million barrels still fell short of the budget target of 766.5 million barrels.

Nigeria missed its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding targets only in January, June, and July. Operational disruptions and outages limited revenue gains, even as crude prices rose.

Overall oil and gas exports grew modestly, rising from $45.51bn in 2024 to $48.17bn in 2025, driven by stronger gas and refined petroleum exports. Gas earnings jumped 21.36% to $10.51bn, while refined petroleum exports reached $6.13bn, reflecting the impact of the Dangote Refinery.

Despite this diversification, crude oil remained the dominant export, meaning its decline weighed heavily on external earnings.

Nigeria’s external sector faced pressure from rising imports and higher outflows. Non-oil imports rose 13.6% to $29.24bn, while deficits in services and primary income accounts widened, with dividend and interest payments to foreign investors surging 60.88% to $9.09bn.

Fuel imports fell sharply from $14.06bn in 2024 to $10bn in 2025, thanks to improved domestic refining, though crude imports of $3.74bn were recorded, linked to feedstock purchases by Dangote Refinery.

Nigeria’s balance of payments surplus declined to $4.23bn in 2025 from $6.83bn in 2024, even as external reserves rose to $45.75bn, showing stronger buffers but persistent structural challenges.