CBN Projects 4.49% GDP Growth, 12.94% Inflation in 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled an optimistic macroeconomic outlook for 2026, projecting real GDP growth at 4.49% and headline inflation easing to 12.94% on average.

Shared via the apex bank’s X handle on Sunday, the Macroeconomic Snapshot builds on 2025 baselines, anchored by structural reforms, easing monetary policy, and coordinated fiscal measures.

This visualization highlights steady expansion amid global uncertainties, with non-oil sectors poised to drive activity through improved security and refining capacity.

Real GDP growth of 4.49% signals continued momentum, depicted as a forward arrow from 2025 levels in the CBN chart.

Key drivers include oil sector investments, banking recapitalization, and priorities to boost private investment while reducing risks. Non-oil sectors will benefit from enhanced refining capacity and better security, fostering broader economic activity.

Headline inflation is expected to moderate significantly to 12.94%, down from prior highs, thanks to declining food prices, lower PMS costs, and the impacts of monetary tightening.

Food and energy price stabilization further supports this trend, as prominently positioned in the snapshot’s layout.

Fiscal indicators show retained revenue at ₦35.51 trillion against ₦47.64 trillion in expenditure, resulting in a 3.01% GDP deficit. Public debt is projected to reach 34.68% of GDP by year-end, reflecting efforts toward greater fiscal prudence.

The outlook rests on critical measures like exchange rate stability, FX reserves rising to $51 billion, and growth-enabling reforms.

The snapshot’s right panel emphasizes disinflation strategies and banking sector strengthening to sustain this positive trajectory.