Africa’s Crude Consumption will Increase to 4.5mbpd by 2050 – Oil Refiners

The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) says the continent’s crude oil consumption will rise from about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050.

In a statement on Monday, Anibor Kragha, ARDA’s executive secretary, said the projection positions Africa’s downstream energy sector as one of the world’s most significant untapped investment opportunities.

“Crude oil consumption in Africa is set to rise from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 4.5 million barrels by 2050,” he said.

“Yet downstream investment has stagnated even as upstream production grows, leaving Africa stuck in the costly paradox of exporting crude and importing refined products at a premium.

“OPEC estimates that Africa will need over $100 billion in refining investment between now and 2050 – a mix of upgrades, expansions and greenfield projects in order to meet the continent’s booming demand for petroleum products over the same period.”

Kragha said while the opportunity is immense, the barriers are equally real.

He noted that although 46 of Africa’s 54 countries maintain national fuel specifications, the continent still operates with 12 different petrol grades.

Kragha added that sulphur levels range from 10 to 2,500 parts per million (ppm), and 11 diesel grades range from 10 to 10,000 ppm.

To close these gaps, the executive said existing African refineries must be upgraded to meet cleaner fuel standards — a process, he said, would require an estimated $16 billion in investment.

He added that such funding would unlock regional trade, improve efficiency, and create economies of scale.

“ARDA is driving adoption of low-sulphur AFRI standards, including AFRI-6 (10 ppm), to enable regional markets, reduce supply-chain costs, improve public health, support refinery upgrades and align Africa with global norms,” Kragha said.

“Through partnerships with the African Union Commission, IPIECA, UNEP, and regional economic communities, ARDA is advancing a continent-wide shift to cleaner fuels.”

Speaking on infrastructure issues, the ARDA executive secretary said persistent challenges in the sector remain a significant drag on Africa’s energy potential.

“A 2024 whitepaper by CITAC and Puma Energy, highlights major logistical constraints,” he said.

Kragha said many African ports are too shallow for large vessels.

“Berths are congested, storage capacity is often inadequate, and roads and pipelines are over-used, creating widespread single points of failure,” he said.

“Collectively, these shortcomings add $20–30 per tonne to landed fuel costs and erode investor confidence in the system’s reliability.

“Despite the expansion of refining capacity, with the Dangote refinery and others coming onstream, this alone will not close the supply shortfall or enable the continent to deliver cleaner fuels at scale.

“Africa faces broader challenges in moving fuel efficiently across the continent, which results in inefficient and incomplete supply chains from coast to inland zones of consumption, including the mining sector, stifling economic growth.”