On Saturday, February 7, 2015, a week to the slated time for the conduct of the presidential elections, Nigerians and the rest of the world were informed that the elections would no longer hold as scheduled due to security reasons. It was postponed by 6 weeks bringing the new date to the 28th of March 2015 and the 11th of April 2015 for the presidential, national assembly as well as governorship and state assembly elections respectively.

The permutation was that the new Multinational Joint Task Force put together to tackle the Boko Haram insurgency needed to be given time to secure the North-eastern areas, which are the stronghold of Boko Haram. The aim of the multinational force is to crush the insurgency to the barest minimum so that it would not be able to disrupt elections in those parts.

The 2015 elections has had many predictions and conclusions over it, starting with the United States’ ominous “conclusion” that Nigeria would break up in 2015, which also coincided with the election year based on the political and religious issues besetting the country.  The tension as a result of the elections has put everyone on the edge of their seats and the words on everyone’s lips is “let the elections be done and over with.”

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the body in charge of conducting elections in the country had earlier in the year allayed fears of the elections not holding, saying all was set and there was no need for postponement. Perhaps, the only inkling to the postponement came from the National Security Adviser who said if INEC needed more time to prepare better for the elections by ensuring majority of the registered voters get their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) among other preparations, then it should get more time, since it was still within the time frame specified under the constitution.

Backlash from various angles greeted the “advice” of the NSA as many saw it as part of the script of the incumbent government. It was thus not that surprising for many when INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega cited unavailability of adequate security for the personnel to conduct elections as the Armed Forces and other security agencies would be fully engaged in the fight against insurgency for six weeks.

The postponement of the elections has taken a toll on many things in the country, both tangible and intangible. An examination of the effect of the postponement will shed light on what this has cost the nation.

 Economy

The economy is the hardest hit by the postponement of the 2015 general elections. The 2015 elections on its own was a cause for concern for especially foreign investors due to the high tension it was generating even years before the d-day. And so rather than abate, the postponement has only led to increased panic among investors and many of them began to withdraw more of their investments.

As expected, the effects of massive divestments had the most visible effects on both the money and capital markets first. The two were weakened further, following the announcement. For instance, naira opened at a record low on Monday, the 9th of February. The postponement added to political uncertainty, which along with the slump in oil prices has put intense pressure on the local currency.

The currency had been trading well below a target of N160-N176 to the dollar, following 8 percent devaluation in November 2014, despite regular central bank interventions. It opened at a record low of N194.75 to the dollar on the 9th and quickly fell at 1.1 percent to N196.05 from its previous close of N193.90 on Friday.

The market capitalization at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) also fell significantly by N208.381 billion, to close at N9.796 trillion, compared with the N10.005 trillion at the close of trading on the 6th of February, 2015. Nigeria’s short-term bond yields according to Reuters  rose slightly following the delay as some investors were selling off bonds to lock in higher yields at an auction where the Debt Management Office (DMO) planned to raise N90 billion.

More so, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would prefer to wait until after the elections to make difficult policy decisions, even though it may not be able to hold out for six weeks in light of the fact that, there was low level of foreign Exchange (Forex) reserves ($33.9bn as at February 5) and its accelerated decline since the beginning of February.

One of the options for the CBN to stem the fall in reserves would be to lose its hold on the naira before the March 28 elections, and it would do this by allowing the naira to weaken on the official Forex market, which would translate into corresponding depreciations in the interbank and bureau de change markets.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala though acknowledged that the naira was under pressure, she said even the World Bank predicted a growth of 4.8% for the country this year. This according to the minister shows that Nigeria’s economy still has traction and most of the expected growth will be driven by the non-oil sector.

Furthermore the stock market, which acts as a barometer for the economy continues to show that investors have lost much confidence in spite of the tremendous effort made to improve the market and return same in the economy. In 2014, the capital market lost a princely N1.9 trillion. By the first week of February 2015, investors had pulled out N846.53 billion investments from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

On February 6 the day before the postponement announcement, the Nigerian All-Share Index closed at 29,985, and had dropped 2,399 points or 8.0 percent one week later. Top losers included blue chip firms such as National Salt Company Nigeria, a number of leading banks, Flour Mills Nigeria, the conglomerate UAC and Guinness Nigeria. But just few days later, Bloomberg reported that the Nigerian stock market was the worst-performing in the world this year.

In a similar vein, Gabriel Ilori Akinyemi, managing director of stockbroker firm Valmon Securities Ltd said, the uncertainty occasioned by the six-week extension has taken its toll on the stock market. Economic experts like Rotimi Fakayejo who is also the managing director of Enterprise Capital also decried the fact that, people are selling their stocks at a loss.

   The continent’s top oil producer and most populous nation are dependent on crude sales for the majority of government revenues, even as it tries to diversify its economy. But crude prices lost around 60 percent of their value to about $40 between June and late January owing to an oversupply in world markets and dwindling global demand. While prices have been climbing in recent weeks markets-watchers say volatility is likely to continue for some time.

The shortfall between market prices that have recently hovered at around $50 per barrel and the Nigerian government’s own benchmark of $65 per barrel has forced a revision of budget estimates for 2015, and an urgent hunt for savings.

Finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday that the government would consider further spending cuts. Oil shocks have sent the Nigerian naira into free fall, with the currency losing 15 percent of its value against the dollar in the past three months, touching record lows, Bloomberg said.

Greater volatility has repeatedly led to shutdowns of Nigeria’s forex market, while the Central Bank of Nigeria has spent about $1 billion shoring up the plummeting currency, according to the FT.

That slide in value, which has had a knock-on effect for consumers in the form of higher prices, has added to concerns about inflation, which was running at 8.0 percent in December. It has also triggered greater demand for forex, particularly of dollars. “This clearly indicates uncertainty and fear,” analyst also Ralph Balogun said.

Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s said on February 10 that a combination of falling oil prices and political risk “may test Nigeria’s institutions or fiscal and external resilience.” Contributing to the standstill is the difficulty in predicting who will actually win the election.

  The postponement of the general elections has made the situation tenser for investors.  The postponement means major decisions becomes difficult to take at this time as most await the results of the polls before they take the next step, thus the tempo of the capital economy is certainly experiencing a deterioration. The Oil and Gas sector isn’t left out either as there are still fears of post-elections crisis, which may disrupt operations in the Niger-Delta.

Many families migrated back to their states of origin either to vote or to avoid much envisaged violence that would result from the polls. Southerners left the north and northerners left the south so as to avoid being victims. Even transport companies stopped their buses from plying the northern routes for instance over attacks. Many did not travel for the Christmas and New Year festive periods in order to save resources for their election trips. Those that left, planning to be away for the two to three weeks, which is the duration of the election, would take now have to adjust their timetable with the postponement.

  For instance, a family that has been residing together for some years suddenly have to make a plan B, on spending because some family members especially the women and children have to be relocated until after the elections, which will lead to rise in expenses for two homes instead of one. The postponement has left many stranded as they are now faced with the dilemma of either staying back till new election dates or return to their businesses and jobs. Staying back means their businesses would be paralyzed for longer than they calculated and if resources are expended earlier, they may have to be at the mercy of others. Some of those who have decided to return considered the education of their children. The attendant effect of the migration is also that the prices of food items brought in from the north for instance like beef, watermelon, yam, among others to the south has been affected, since a lot of northerners left the south.

There are those who were determined to return to the country from their bases abroad to exercise their civic duty, with flights and accommodation booked. They have to recoup their losses and make new arrangements. Some have been injured, maimed or even lost their lives in accidents in the course of their movements. Lots are stranded while many have gone back to their places of businesses to await their next migration when the new date draws nearer.

 Political Parties

While the allegation that the ruling Peoples Democracy Party was the brain behind poll shift remains, arguable, most politicians were disappointed at the postponement because it meant they have to chew their nails while they wait for the new dates announced to arrive. Most politicians had drawn their budget in a way that terminated on the scheduled election dates. The postponement means stretching their budgets beyond what was envisaged. But the good side for them is that they can reach out more than before and try to sway the electorates to their sides. The only people that may benefit financially from the postponement are public relations outfits handling the campaigns for the parties and printers

 Nigeria is a must watch country by the international community as whoever takes the reins of government is of interest to the world. Many are keenly watching the country as events in Africa’s most populous country have far reaching consequences. That was why major world news channels prepared their staff and those who would report the elections for their viewers.

Arrangements had been made for reporters and foreign observers of elections procedures to come into the country. About 160 foreigners had been approved to observe the elections, these people would certainly not waste six weeks of their time and resources loitering about in the country pending the new dates,

The European Union (EU) observers, African Union observers, ECOWAS election observers had all arrived the country before the postponement was announced so also were correspondents from major international wire services, newspaper houses and broadcast stations. Some embassies have sent some their non-essential staff and families members back home in anticipation of the violence that would accompany the elections. Now, they also may have to come back since the polls were shifted forwards.

  For instance, the EU Election Observation Mission to Nigeria will require an extra 1.8 million Euros budget to remain in the country to carry out its assignment following the rescheduling of the polls, an official said. The Chief Observer of the mission, Santiago Fisas, made the development known in a media interaction in Abuja.

Fisas said that the extra funds would raise the mission’s budget for monitoring the polls to 6.2 million Euros. He said the team would work in all the geo-political zones in the country, except the northeast but added that some members of the mission would observe holidays for about 10 days.

Overall, the economic cost of the 2015 general elections has been enormous for Nigeria and Nigerians as well as foreigners with interest in Nigeria. The postponement led to more losses than gains for a majority and even the country itself. The decision taken by the electoral body had far reaching consequences that may take a while to balance out. It may take till middle of the year before the economy picks up again in adjustment to any new policies that may be enacted. The hope is that the elections are held so lives can get back on track. INEC, Nigerians and the world wait…