Aviation Sector Contracts 47% in Q1 2026 – NBS

Nigeria’s aviation industry recorded its first contraction in nearly two years in Q1 2026, with air transport output plunging by 47.3% year-on-year in nominal terms, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The subsector, which expanded by 57.21% in Q1 2025, reversed sharply, marking its steepest decline since the 8.92% drop in Q1 2024.

Air transport generated ₦55.74bn in Q1 2026, down from ₦105.77bn a year earlier, erasing much of the momentum built during the 2025 recovery. The sector’s share of nominal GDP fell to 0.05%, compared with 0.11% in Q1 2025.

Real output also declined by 7.62% year-on-year, worsening from the 0.81% contraction in Q1 2025, with aviation output dropping to ₦33.66bn at constant 2019 prices.

The downturn followed a steady deceleration in 2025: growth slowed from 57.21% in Q1 to 30.60% in Q2, 2.88% in Q3, and 18.02% in Q4, before plunging negative in early 2026.

Despite aviation’s slump, the broader transportation and storage sector grew by 6.51% nominally and 7.41% in real terms in Q1 2026, supported by road logistics, courier services, and water transport.

However, analysts warn that aviation has become a major pressure point. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) noted that taxes, fees, and levies consume up to 35% of airline revenues, undermining profitability and sustainability.

The cumulative burden of ticket sales charges, cargo fees, passenger service charges, landing and parking fees, inspection costs, and duties on aircraft and spare parts has eroded resilience, leaving domestic carriers struggling to remain viable.