Kwara 2027: The Chess Game of Saraki’s PDP and AbdulRazaq’s APC, by Yushau A. Shuaib
In the last two months, Kwara State politics has gradually transformed into a sophisticated chessboard where strategic calculations, silent alliances, political decoys, and subtle manoeuvres are unfolding behind the scenes.
The emergence of candidates by the major political parties may appear straightforward. But to close watchers of Kwara politics, developments within both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) reveal a deeper contest driven by strategy, ambition, and political survival.
Indeed, some aspirants spent huge sums purchasing nomination forms and mobilising supporters, yet even within their own camps, many understood that certain ambitions were less about actual victory and more about tactical positioning in a larger political chess game.
The first major surprise came when Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq publicly endorsed Ambassador Yahaya Seriki from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Central Senatorial District as his preferred successor. That endorsement appeared to settle months of speculation suggesting that the governor was quietly promoting a candidate from the predominantly non-Yoruba-speaking Kwara North, allegedly in response to perceived preferences from influential interests in Abuja for a candidate from the Yoruba-speaking Kwara South.
Yet, in a dramatic twist, the governor’s preferred consensus arrangement was eventually jettisoned by the APC national leadership, which insisted on a direct primary election.
At the end of the tense two-day exercise, the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Salihu Yakubu Danladi from Kwara North, defeated all the aspirants—most of whom were from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Central—including a respected lawyer, professor, businessmen, heads of federal institutions, as well as serving and former senators, to clinch the APC governorship ticket.
But the counter-move from the PDP was equally strategic. Reading the unfolding permutations—and noting the implications of the APC producing a Kwara North candidate despite the dominance of aspirants from the Ilorin Emirate in Kwara Central—the PDP leadership, under former Senate President and two‑term governor Bukola Saraki, quickly moved to unify its ranks. The party rallied other aspirants behind Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, a Yoruba‑speaking Fulani from Ilorin, as its consensus candidate, signalling a strategic attempt to consolidate the traditional Kwara Central political bloc.
Thus, the stage was set for another major political confrontation in Kwara—one that revives the enduring Saraki-AbdulRazaq rivalry that has largely defined the state’s political direction since 1999, and not necessarily from the 2019 “O To Ge” political revolution alone.
Meanwhile, emerging opposition parties have also unveiled their governorship candidates. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has announced Hon. Zakari Mohammed, a former member of the House of Representatives from Kwara North, as its consensus flag-bearer. Similarly, there is also media speculation that National Democratic Congress (NDC) is poised to either endorse Mallam AbdulRahman Giwa, a cousin of the governor from Kwara Central or Engr Jamiu Bolaji as its candidate.
Whether these emerging parties are genuine alternative platforms or merely strategic spoilers capable of weakening stronger contenders within their respective senatorial zones remains a matter of political interpretation.
Without venturing into speculative calculations about voter distribution across Kwara North, Kwara South, and Kwara Central—which could be both instructive and politically sensitive—one indisputable reality remains: both Yakubu Danladi and Bolakale Kawu have emerged as the major contenders, each possessing distinguished professional and personal credentials beyond partisan politics.
Born on May 31, 1985, in Gwanara, Baruten Local Government Area, Yakubu Danladi hails from a modest but respected family. The son of the late Alhaji Salihu Aliyu, the Tafarkin Borgu, his journey reflects discipline, focus, and steady growth. He completed his secondary education at St. Anthony Secondary School, Ilorin in 2001, before earning both National and Higher National Diplomas in Electrical/Electronic Engineering from Kaduna Polytechnic, followed by a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the Federal University of Technology (FUT), Minna.
He lectured at FUT Minna from 2010 to 2018 before venturing into politics in 2019 where he won the Ilesha/Gwanara Constituency seat and, at just 34, became Speaker of the 9th Kwara State House of Assembly—one of the youngest in Nigeria. He retained both his seat and speakership in 2023, strengthening his influence within the APC.
His PDP challenger, Engr. Bolakale Kawu Agaka was born on May 1, 1969, in Ilorin. He hails from the Agaka lineage within the celebrated Alimi dynasty of the Ilorin Emirate. His educational background spans Electrical Power Engineering, Administration, and Business Management, with qualifications from Kwara State Polytechnic, Federal University of Technology Akure, and Ladoke Akintola University of Technology.
Following his National Youth Service with the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) in 1996, he built an extensive career within Nigeria’s power sector, eventually rising to become Executive Director of the Rural Electrification Agency before retiring from public service in 2025.
Throughout his years in service, Kawu developed a reputation for philanthropy, youth empowerment, and community development. Significantly, Governor AbdulRazaq himself publicly commended his contributions during his turbaning as Dan Iyan Ilorin in 2022.
Today, beyond his technocratic credentials, Kawu also carries the influential traditional title of Daniyan of Ilorin—a title that gives him considerable cultural and social influence within the Ilorin Emirate.
What makes the unfolding contest particularly fascinating is that both parties appear to have chosen their candidates not merely on popularity, but through deeper strategic calculations involving geography, identity, succession balance, and voter psychology.
For the APC, presenting a youthful Speaker from Kwara North signals a strategic bid to consolidate northern support while leveraging the advantages of incumbency. For the PDP, rallying behind a respected technocrat and traditional titleholder from the Ilorin Emirate reflects an effort to rebuild the Saraki‑era coalition in Kwara Central while appealing to both elite and grassroots sentiments.
Beyond posters and endorsements, Kwara 2027 is quietly unfolding as a sophisticated political chessboard. If Kwara North aligns firmly with Danladi and Kwara Central stands solidly behind Kawu, could Kwara South become the decisive battleground? In this evolving contest, the next governor is likely to emerge from the camp that best understands the delicate arithmetic, emotional undercurrents, and shifting dynamics of Kwara’s political chess game.
Yushau A. Shuaib is author of An Encounter with the Spymaster [email protected]