Domestic Crude Supply Falls Short in Q1 – NUPRC

Domestic refineries received only 28.5 million barrels of crude oil in Q1 2026, far below the 61.9 million barrels allocated, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Producers had even offered 68.7 million barrels, but actual deliveries fell short due to pricing disputes between producers and refiners under the “willing buyer, willing seller” framework.

The Commission said: “Actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36–46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter.”

Monthly breakdown showed persistent gaps: January deliveries were 9.2m barrels against 22.6m allocated; February saw 9.1m barrels against 20.5m allocated; March improved slightly to 10.1m barrels against 18.8m allocated.

For Q2, NUPRC has allocated 55.1m barrels, with producers pledging 58.8m barrels, but supply risks remain if pricing disagreements persist.

The shortfall comes amid fluctuating national output. Nigeria produced 1.459m bpd in January, dropping to 1.31m bpd in February, before recovering to 1.38m bpd in March, according to OPEC data.

Earlier reports showed Nigeria missed its government benchmark of 1.84m bpd, producing about 92m barrels in the first two months of 2026, compared to the projected 108.6m barrels, a shortfall of 16.6m barrels.

Analysts warn that without resolving pricing disputes, the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 may continue to underdeliver, undermining efforts to reduce reliance on imported petroleum products.