Fuel, Logistics Costs Push Food Prices Higher

The average cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice for a Nigerian family has risen by more than 40 per cent of the national minimum wage, highlighting deepening pressure on household incomes amid surging food and transport costs.

According to the latest SBM Intelligence Jollof Index for the first quarter of 2026, “a pot of jollof now costs more than 40 per cent of the national minimum wage,” after the average price climbed to N30,435 in March 2026.

The report showed that the cost rose by 19.4 per cent from N25,486 in October 2025, reflecting a sharp escalation driven largely by fuel price shocks, logistics bottlenecks, and persistent inflationary pressures.

Providing context, the report linked the surge to global oil market disruptions, noting that after the outbreak of conflict involving Iran in late February 2026, crude oil prices spiked sharply, triggering a ripple effect across Nigeria’s economy.

These increases translated directly into food prices, as the cost of moving goods surged nationwide. SBM Intelligence noted that “every single ingredient in the jollof basket… became more expensive to move, store, and sell,” underlining the central role of logistics in Nigeria’s food inflation.

The pressure on households is further reflected in official inflation data cited in the report. Headline inflation rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, while month-on-month inflation more than doubled to 4.18 per cent. Food inflation remained elevated, with rural areas experiencing sharper increases due to transport constraints.

Across major cities, cost variations were stark. In Abuja, the Wuse II market recorded the highest cost at N36,750, rising by 14.7 per cent in March alone, while Nyanya climbed to N31,800.

Lagos markets posted the sharpest monthly increase, jumping by 23.1 per cent to about N28,200, reflecting the city’s dependence on imported food and vulnerable supply chains.

Port Harcourt recorded the steepest six-month rise, surging by 55.1 per cent to N31,650, driven by high logistics costs and reliance on diesel-powered cold storage.

By contrast, some Southeast markets such as Awka and Onitsha recorded slight monthly declines of 2.0 per cent to N24,250, although prices remained significantly higher than six months earlier.

The report stressed that the modest national month-on-month increase masks deeper distress, stating that “the plateau isn’t relief, it’s exhaustion,” as many households have reached their spending limits.

It added that in cities like Kano, prices appeared stable not because costs had eased, but because “customers could not absorb more,” leading to reduced consumption and weakened demand.

Household responses to rising costs have become increasingly severe. The report found widespread adoption of coping mechanisms such as reducing meal portions, switching to cheaper protein sources, and abandoning bulk purchases.

One respondent was quoted as saying, “Meat, I don’t bother again. The protein I use now is smoked dry fish, because cost of meat… is highly expensive.”

Others reported switching from cooking gas to charcoal and relying on neighbourhood shops to avoid transport costs, reflecting how energy prices are reshaping consumption patterns.

The report also highlighted structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s food system, including insecurity in farming regions, poor road infrastructure, and heavy dependence on fuel-based logistics. It warned that the global oil shock only exposed long-standing vulnerabilities rather than creating them.

Comparatively, Ghana recorded a more stable trend, with its average cost at GHS435.50, although the report noted that the apparent stability masks volatility driven by global fuel prices and import dependence.

In dollar terms, Nigeria’s situation appears more severe. The report noted that the cost of cooking jollof rose from $14.49 in 2023 to $21.93 in 2026, indicating that food inflation is “hardening fast” in real terms.

Despite policy efforts, SBM Intelligence argued that responses have been largely reactive, with households left to absorb the full impact of rising costs.

It concluded that the growing cost of a basic meal has become a clear indicator of economic strain, warning that without structural reforms in transport, energy, and food systems, affordability will continue to decline.