Crude-Backed Loans of 2025 Oil Revenue Consumed N8.36trn
In 2025, approximately 14.66% of Nigeria’s total crude oil production was swallowed by the servicing of crude-backed loan facilities.
Based on NNPC Limited’s financial disclosures, four major debt arrangements—Projects Gazelle, Yield, Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding—collectively tied up 213,000 barrels of oil per day.
Over the course of the year, this commitment totaled 77.75 million barrels. At an average price of $72.08 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,492, the value of this “lost” revenue reached a staggering N8.36tn. This massive sum was effectively diverted to creditors before it could ever hit the government’s general coffers.
These financial obligations were designed to solve immediate crises, ranging from refinery rehabilitations to supporting national cash flow.
As the NNPC statement noted regarding the Eagle Export Funding deal: “The payment received is required to be settled with the delivery of crude oil volumes… at least 1,800,000 barrels must be nominated… in every delivery period.”
The Project Yield arrangement, which funded the Port Harcourt Refinery upgrade, remains a significant burden. This N1.5tn loan requires the delivery of 67,000 barrels per day.
Though it benefited from a moratorium, repayments were scheduled to begin in June 2025, further tightening the nation’s available oil supply.
The largest single exposure is Project Gazelle, a massive crude-for-cash deal used to finance advance tax and royalty payments.
With an outstanding balance of N3.8tn at the start of 2025, the agreement demands a sustained delivery of 90,000 barrels per day until the debt is fully extinguished.
Beyond crude oil, gas revenues are also under pressure. An arrangement with Nigeria LNG Limited saw N772bn provided upfront for future gas supplies.
By the end of 2024, hundreds of billions in gas value were still owed, adding another layer of complexity to the nation’s energy-backed debt profile.
Critics point to a lack of transparency regarding these deals. Ademola Adigun, CEO of AHA Strategies, noted that “some of our crude is already tied up in loan agreements.
“The problem is that Nigeria doesn’t know the full details of these transactions because there’s little transparency around them.”
Economists argue that these legacy deals act as a drag on current growth. Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, observed that “during the Emefiele years, Nigeria committed a lot of its crude upfront. Those forward sales are still eating into our current earnings.”
Despite these constraints, some experts see a shift toward better management. While the N8.36tn diversion highlights the heavy price of past borrowing, Yusuf noted that “under the new management of the NNPC, there’s better professionalism and openness,” suggesting that full disclosure remains the only path to restoring fiscal confidence.