Analysis: From Crude to Complexity: Why Nigeria’s Export Story Must Change – NRS Boss
By Arabinrin Aderonke
For decades, Nigeria’s economic story has followed a familiar script: extract raw materials, export them largely unprocessed, earn foreign exchange, repeat. It is a model that once delivered revenues but has failed to deliver prosperity. Today, as the global economy increasingly rewards knowledge, innovation, and complexity, that script is wearing thin, and its limitations are becoming harder to ignore.
This reality formed the backdrop to a recent intervention by the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr. Zacch Adedeji, who used his maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, to pose a fundamental question: how does Nigeria move from potential to prosperity in a rapidly changing world? His message was both sobering and instructive, economic growth is no longer about producing more of the same things, but about producing different and more complex things.
Speaking on the theme “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-Led Economy,” Adedeji argued that Nigeria’s central challenge is not the absence of resources, but the absence of complexity. Growth, he stressed, must no longer be measured by how much the country produces, but by what it produces, and how sophisticated those products are.
Nigeria’s economic structure illustrates a striking contradiction. The country operates a technically advanced oil and gas sector integrated into global markets, yet the wider economy tells a different story. The informal sector where a majority of Nigerians work remains low in productivity, while manufacturing contributes a modest share to GDP and absorbs far fewer workers than in peer economies. The missing link is a strong, labour-intensive industrial base capable of transferring skills, technology, and productivity across the economy.
Export data reinforces this picture. Between 1998 and 2023, Nigeria’s export structure showed little transformation. According to data referenced from the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, the country added only six new products to its export basket between 2008 and 2023, an unusually small number for an economy of Nigeria’s size and population. As a result, Nigeria remains heavily concentrated in crude oil and a narrow range of primary commodities.
The implication is significant. Countries that export a narrow set of low-complexity goods tend to face slower growth, greater volatility, and limited opportunities for learning. The Harvard Atlas concludes that Nigeria is currently positioned to take advantage of very few diversification opportunities using its existing productive knowledge, a reflection of decades of underinvestment in industrial capability.
To explain what is possible, NRS Boss pointed to comparative global experiences. Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil all started from different initial conditions, but their long-term outcomes diverged sharply. Vietnam stands out. Rather than relying on natural resources, it strategically integrated into Global Value Chains, positioning itself as an assembly hub for electronics and manufactured goods. By importing high-tech components and exporting finished products, Vietnam effectively absorbed foreign technology, managerial practices, and industrial discipline are gradually building domestic capacity.
Other countries followed less successful paths. Over-dependence on natural resources or narrow low-tech specialisations limited industrial learning. In some cases, such as South Africa and Brazil, early industrial advantages were gradually eroded. Their experience underscores an often-overlooked lesson: productive capabilities are not permanent. Without continuous upgrading, economies can lose ground.
For Nigeria, the warning is even more urgent. With a less diversified base and weaker industrial depth, reliance on natural endowments is not just risky, it is regressive. Resource extraction creates short-term incentives that often crowd out long-term investments in skills, manufacturing, and innovation. Meanwhile, the global economy is moving in the opposite direction, rewarding countries that can embed knowledge into products and participate meaningfully in value chains.
Yet the moment also presents an opportunity. Ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signal a willingness to confront structural weaknesses. But reform, as Adedeji emphasised, must go beyond fiscal adjustment and revenue mobilisation. The ultimate objective should be to build collective national capability, the ability of Nigerian firms and workers to produce, adapt, and compete in increasingly complex markets.
Moving from potential to prosperity will require Nigeria to redefine its role in global trade. The country must transition from being largely a source of raw materials to becoming a source of ideas, innovation, and value-added products. That shift will not happen overnight. But without it, Nigeria risks remaining stuck, rich in resources, yet poor in outcomes.
Arabinrin Aderonke Atoyebi is a policy analyst, a finalist of the 2016 CNN Africa Journalism Awards, and currently serves as Technical Assistant on Broadcast Media to the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service. She writes from Abuja.