IMPI Forecasts 5.5% GDP Growth for Nigeria

The policy group, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product will reach 5.5 per cent in 2026, driven by what it describes as the new economic model deployed by President Bola Tinubu.

This was disclosed in a policy statement signed by its chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, maintaining that its 5.5 per cent GDP growth projection would trump that of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Economic Confidential reports that the IMF forecasts a 4.4 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2026 on stabilising macroeconomic trends.

IMPI said, “We made it clear that the Nigerian economy under the current administration had engendered a paradigm shift from perennial dependency on crude oil earnings to policy-driven economic facilitation. This refers to the deliberate use of governmental policies, regulations, and institutional frameworks to reduce obstacles, lower costs, and speed up economic activities, particularly in trade and investment. The facilitation, in this context, aims to foster sustainable, inclusive growth by improving efficiency and reducing red tape.

“Seven months after that questionable projection by the International Monetary Fund, we have seen a volte-face. In an epiphany-like realisation, the IMF now speaks of a resurgent Nigerian economy as reflected in the global multilateral institution’s revised Nigerian economic outlook to a projected 4.4 per cent economic growth for 2026.

This is the highest GDP growth projection by the IMF over the last 17 years, a real expression of confidence in the Nigerian economy.”

The think tank also referenced the general consensus on Nigeria’s growth prospects, which it attributed to the economic model adopted by the Tinubu administration.

“Beyond the IMF’s new GDP projection, we have observed a consensus around a higher than 4 per cent economic growth performance expectation of the Nigerian economy by virtually all known individual and public economic commentators.

“While the Nigerian government projected 4.68 per cent growth in 2026, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry projected a massive seven per cent, 1.5 per cent higher than the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s 5.5 per cent for the year. PwC sustained the conservative threshold by projecting a 4.3 per cent growth conditioned on higher oil prices, while the World Bank also revised its earlier 3.7 per cent projection to 4.4 per cent.

“The agglomeration of these positive economic growth outlooks by domestic and global institutional players points to an emerging economic paradigm that emphasises increased production and productivity momentum, foreign exchange stability, disinflation, galvanised foreign direct investment and inflow, and an unobtrusive regulatory environment, anchored in policy-driven economic facilitation,” it added.