Headline Inflation Eases to 15.15% in December 2025 – NBS

Nigeria closed 2025 with headline inflation easing to 15.15% in December, a sharp moderation from the 34.80% recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.

The December figure also represents a further slowdown from 17.33% in November, reinforcing a sustained disinflationary trend in the final quarter of the year. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose by 0.54%, indicating slower price increases compared with the previous month.

Analysts say the 2025 inflation trajectory has been significantly shaped by a comprehensive rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) carried out by the NBS — the first such exercise in 15 years. As part of the update, the statistics office revised the CPI reference year to 2024, expanded the consumption basket, and aligned expenditure weights with current household spending patterns to better reflect economic realities.

Ahead of the December release, the NBS had cautioned that comparing prices strictly with December 2024 could result in base-effect distortions, potentially exaggerating headline inflation. To mitigate this, the bureau adopted a 12-month reference framework, a move consistent with international best practices and aimed at producing a more accurate inflation reading.

Breakdowns of the data show that food inflation moderated significantly, easing to 10.84 per cent year-on-year in December. The slowdown reflects softer price pressures across key staples such as tomatoes, eggs and garri. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also declined to 18.63% year-on-year, signalling easing underlying price pressures.

Inflation trends across geographical segments showed similar moderation. Urban inflation stood at 14.85%, while rural inflation eased to 14.56 per cent, pointing to a broad-based deceleration across the country.

The easing inflation backdrop comes amid a wider phase of macroeconomic consolidation, driven by reforms introduced since 2023, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification. The Federal Government has described these measures as necessary for restoring macroeconomic stability and boosting investor confidence, even as rising living costs continue to pose social and political challenges.

Notably, some analysts had earlier projected that festive spending pressures and statistical base effects could push December inflation significantly higher, with forecasts from institutions such as Stanbic IBTC Bank warning of possible spikes above 30 per cent before methodological adjustments. The eventual outcome underscores the importance of statistical methodology in interpreting headline inflation data.

With inflation now hovering close to the government’s 15% target for 2025, policymakers have expressed cautious optimism about sustained price stability. However, they acknowledge that headline improvements may not immediately translate into relief for households, underscoring the need for continued structural reforms and credible data reporting to ensure that macroeconomic gains are felt at the consumer level.