Local Refining Boom Cuts Petrol Imports by N6trn

Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell sharply in the first nine months of 2025, dropping by N6.07tn compared with the same period of 2024, according to an analysis of National Bureau of Statistics trade data.

The value of imported motor spirit, ordinary, stood at N5.42tn between January and September 2025, far below the N11.50tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The contraction represents a 52.82 per cent collapse in the country’s petrol import bill, a shift analysts link to improvements in domestic refining output and reduced dependence on offshore supply.

A breakdown of the quarterly data shows that the decline has been consistent since the start of the year. In the first quarter of 2024, Nigeria spent N3.81tn on PMS imports, but this fell to N1.76tn in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a 53.8 per cent decline, or about N2.05tn.

The second quarter followed the same pattern, with PMS imports sliding from N4.36tn in Q2 2024 to N2.38tn in Q2 2025. This represented a year-on-year fall of N1.99tn, or 45.6 per cent. The third quarter recorded the sharpest contraction: petrol imports dropped from N3.32tn between July and September 2024 to N1.29tn in the same period of 2025, a decrease of N2.03tn or 61.2 per cent.

Across all three quarters combined, Nigeria imported N6.07tn less PMS than it did in 2024, underscoring the magnitude of the shift in its petroleum supply structure.

Although the NBS has not attributed the decline to a single factor, the speed and scale of the reduction align with ongoing improvements in domestic production capacity.

The trend also suggests a gradual easing of foreign exchange pressure caused by large-scale fuel importation since the subsidy reform of 2023. The NBS filings show that PMS remained one of the country’s top import items through 2024, but its share has thinned steadily.

In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025, motor spirit still featured prominently in the import basket, but at far lower values than in previous years. The declining import trend corresponds with the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, which began diesel and aviation fuel production in January and added petrol output in September, and is considered central to Nigeria’s goal of fuel self-sufficiency.

The refinery’s entry has created greater competition in the downstream market, with petrol retail prices in the country dropping randomly throughout the year. However, operations at the facility have faced early challenges. In March, Dangote Refinery temporarily suspended local currency sales due to difficulty in sourcing foreign exchange, as the refinery purchases crude oil in dollars but receives payments in naira.

The Federal Government has since stepped in to resolve the naira-for-crude bottleneck, allowing the refinery to continue the deal and reducing Nigeria’s reliance on petrol imports.

The President of the Dangote Group and founder of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Aliko Dangote, earlier said that there would be an announcement of what he called a major ‘shakedown’ in the entire country soon. Dangote said this was not about price reduction, but the complete overhaul of the downstream sector.

He stated this in an interview with newsmen following the recent visit of President Bola Tinubu to the $20bn refinery in Lekki, Lagos.

Asked to mention the ‘big thing’ he had in store for Nigerians with the refinery, Dangote replied, “Now that the President has visited and he has given us additional energy, we will inform you, you will hear from us soon, and that will be one of the major shakeups in the entire country. It is not the reduction of price; it will be the total overhaul of the downstream.”

Dangote, who refused to let the cat out of the bag, noted that the company would go on a “massive trajectory” with the refinery. “I told the President that he had not seen anything yet; we are going on a massive trajectory, much more than what you have seen here. If you come back in the next five years, the refinery will be on the back burner,” he stated

The businessman also restated that the refinery would be listed on the stock exchange market, starting with the fertiliser company this year. Dangote noted that the refinery offered extensive benefits to the Nigerian economy and its people, declaring that the days of long fuel queues were over in Nigeria.

“We remain steadfast in our commitment to contributing meaningfully to Nigeria’s economic transformation, supporting your administration’s efforts to build a self-reliant, globally competitive nation. We have remained Nigeria’s highest tax-paying company. With continued collaboration and shared resolve, we are confident that the journey ahead will usher in even greater opportunities for our people and our country,” Dangote said.

In October 2025, Dangote said there are plans to expand the Dangote oil refinery from the 650,000 capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, the largest in the world. The PUNCH first reported in July that the refinery planned to scale up to 700,000 bpd by December this year.

According to S&P Global, the Nigerian business mogul is seeking to double the size of the refinery with Middle Eastern funding, putting it on track to become the largest in the world. The Dangote refinery has transformed Nigeria into a net exporter of diesel and jet fuel and supplies vast quantities of petrol that were once imported from Europe.

Dangote was said to have described his ambitions to develop African energy independence as a “herculean task.” “We have to build the refinery again, either here or somewhere else. But really, somewhere else is not possible because we’d have to go and spend so much building infrastructure, and we have the infrastructure already here,” Dangote was quoted as saying.