Nigeria-BRICS Trade Hits N5.4tn in Q1 2025 Amid U.S. Tariff Threat

Nigeria’s trade with BRICS countries jumped to N5.41tn in the first quarter of 2025, more than three times higher than the N1.54tn recorded from exports to the United States.

This was according to an analysis of data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade statistics report.

The significant rise shows a major shift in Nigeria’s trade strategy towards emerging markets, but comes at a time when the United States has threatened to impose an additional 10 per cent tariff on BRICS-aligned nations, a move that could raise Nigeria’s total US-bound tariff exposure to 24 per cent.

This came as some members of the Organised Private Sector stated that the US threat of a 10 per cent tariff on BRICS-aligned nations and a 25 per cent tariff on Japan and South Korea signals rising global trade tensions that could indirectly affect Nigeria’s private sector.

Findings showed that the surge in BRICS-bound exports was led by India, which accounted for N2.84tn in Q1, a sharp increase from N1.60tn in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Indonesia followed with N1.19tn, while South Africa received N708bn worth of goods.

Brazil and China recorded slower volumes at N369bn and N301bn, respectively, while Egypt, a newer BRICS entrant, accounted for only N1.6bn.

However, the NBS report did not include figures for Russia, Iran, Ethiopia, or the United Arab Emirates — all of which are part of the expanded BRICS bloc. This means Nigeria’s actual export volume to BRICS would be significantly higher if those countries were captured in the dataset.

In contrast, exports to the United States — though improved — stood at N1.54tn in Q1, representing a 65.5 per cent increase from the N931bn recorded in the previous quarter.

The bulk of this trade remains concentrated in crude oil and a narrow range of chemicals and agro-based commodities. While the US remains an important market, it is increasingly dwarfed by the scale and diversity of Nigeria’s engagements with BRICS countries.

However, this new reality is now under threat following remarks by former US President Donald Trump, who warned that the United States would introduce a 10 per cent tariff on exports from countries it deems to be aligning with what he described as “anti-American” BRICS policies.

In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump accused the BRICS bloc of pursuing a de-dollarisation agenda and challenging US leadership in global trade.

The additional 10 per cent levy — if imposed — would raise Nigeria’s average tariff exposure on US exports from 14 per cent to 24 per cent. Trade experts say this could significantly harm Nigeria’s competitiveness, particularly in oil, fertiliser, and petrochemical exports, which form the backbone of US-bound shipments.

A 24 per cent tariff on these goods would likely price Nigerian products out of the US market or force importers to seek cheaper alternatives elsewhere. The consequences of such a development could be far-reaching. Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows from exports play a key role in supporting the naira, which remains under pressure amid high inflation.

A drop in US-linked export earnings could trigger fresh pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria to intervene in the foreign exchange market, potentially leading to another depletion of reserves or further depreciation of the currency.

Nigeria’s policymakers now face a delicate balancing act. While BRICS trade volumes are expanding and the bloc offers broad market access and infrastructure financing, the United States remains a vital economic partner and geopolitical ally.

Nigeria formally began participating in BRICS+ engagements in 2024, joining discussions around trade, development, and finance, but government officials say this does not mean Nigeria is turning away from the West.

Speaking on Morning Brief on Channels Television on Tuesday, the Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol, Mr Ademola Oshodi, said Nigeria’s involvement with BRICS is based on ideological and strategic alignment but not formal membership.

His remarks, come amid growing concerns over the potential impact of the proposed 10 per cent US tariff on countries aligning with BRICS.

Oshodi described Nigeria’s BRICS partnership as “bigger than any other South-South cooperation framework, next only to the United Nations,” and emphasised that it gives Nigeria a seat at the table with major global players like China, India, and Russia.

However, he clarified that Nigeria is currently a partner country, not a full member, and as such, cannot vote or sign communiqués within the BRICS structure.

He dismissed fears that the US tariff threat would affect Nigeria, stating, “That 10 per cent policy is more of an assurance right now, it’s not yet an American policy… We’re not a full BRICS member. So, this should not affect us regardless of our ideological similarities.”

He further noted that Nigeria enjoys a strong and symbiotic relationship with the global North, particularly the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom.

“Our biggest trading partners are with those countries before we go down to India and others,” he said, adding that Nigeria continues to engage constructively with the West on trade, climate change, and diplomatic cooperation through platforms like the Commonwealth, United Nations, and G20.

When asked what Nigeria stood to gain from the BRICS summit in Brazil, Oshodi responded, “We’re coming back with a tremendous profile for the country… Nigeria is now seen in a higher, bigger light than just an African player. We are seen toe-to-toe with those big players.”

He concluded by highlighting Nigeria’s growing economic ties with India, China, and Brazil and noted the strategic chemistry between President Tinubu and Brazil’s President Lula as a factor enhancing bilateral cooperation.

“Nigeria comes out looking very good on that table,” he said, describing the invitation as evidence of Nigeria’s standing as a major African and global player.

His comments affirmed the government’s cautious but optimistic approach to global trade diplomacy—balancing growing BRICS partnerships with long-standing Western alliances while downplaying immediate fears of retaliatory tariffs from the US.

However, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the US threat of a 10 per cent tariff on BRICS-aligned nations and a 25 per cent tariff on Japan and South Korea signals rising global trade tensions that could indirectly affect Nigeria’s private sector.

“As global supply chains adjust and trading blocs realign, Nigerian businesses, especially those reliant on imports from affected countries, may face increased costs and volatility in sourcing raw materials, equipment, and technology.

“However, this shift also presents opportunities. With the African Union countering the US approach by strengthening AfCFTA, Nigeria has a chance to deepen regional trade and attract more investment from BRICS countries seeking alternative markets. This could create new export pathways and position Nigerian businesses to serve a larger African market, reducing overdependence on traditional trading partners.

“To benefit, Nigeria must act fast, supporting local production, improving trade infrastructure, and adopting policies that align with AfCFTA goals. The private sector must stay agile, competitive, and innovative to seize emerging opportunities while mitigating external risks. This is a defining moment for Nigeria to reposition itself as a key player in the evolving global trade landscape,” he stated.