Nigeria’s Exports to African Countries Decline by N631.5bn

Stakeholders are banking on the continued growth of non-oil trade to drive Nigeria’s exports to African countries, despite earnings crashing by 631.52 bn to N1.85 tn since the last peak of N2.49 tn in the third quarter of 2024.

Nigeria’s exports to African countries have dropped in two consecutive quarters. It dropped by 9.19 per cent to N1.85 tn from N2.04 tn in Q4 2024. The country previously recorded a steeper decline of 17.86 per cent to N2.04 tn in Q4 2024 from the last peak of N2.49 tn in Q3 2024.

Foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in Q1 2025, the value of Nigeria’s exports to African countries stood at N1.85tn, representing nine per cent of the total exports. Total exports in the quarter under review stood at N20.59 tn.

From Q1 to Q4 2024, Nigeria’s exports to African countries by percentage of total exports were 11.67 per cent, 12.13 per cent, 12.13 per cent and 10.20 per cent, respectively.

Stakeholders observed that the country’s performance was due to the drop in oil exports. They explained that production and global pricing factors impacting Nigeria’s oil earnings may contribute to declining figures but noted that non-oil trade will reprieve the country’s intra-African trade.

Nigeria’s non-oil exports in Q1 2025 grew by 11.45 per cent to N3.17 tn from N2.84 tn in Q4 2024, while its Q1 2025 non-oil exports represented 15.38 per cent of total exports. Meanwhile, crude oil exports in the quarter under review, Q1 2025, were valued at N12.96 tn, reflecting a 6.01 per cent decrease (quarter-on-quarter) and a 16.35 per cent decrease (year-on-year).

Nonetheless, oil products (crude and non-crude oil) remain Nigeria’s dominant export at ₦20.59 tn. This shows that Nigeria’s export earnings remain heavily dependent on oil trade.

In separate interviews, stakeholders responded to the country’s receding African export fortunes calmly and agreed that Nigeria’s future hung on the growth of non-oil trade. They reckoned that increasing local refining needs and plummeting prices, save the price disruption from the recent Israel-Iran conflict, have eaten into the available oil export stock.

President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, explained that Nigeria positioned itself to gain from exports as it unified the exchange rate since the value of the naira shrank. While linking the growth of the non-oil trade to the exchange rate unification, he said that he expected Nigeria’s declining oil exports.

He explained, “Non-oil exports should be growing steadily for two reasons; one is our internal focus on promoting the export of processed goods, which is adding value to exports. The various efforts by individuals and companies have seen a steady growth in non-oil exports. But for oil exports, we expect the exports to go down because we are consuming a lot of it in our refineries.”

Idahosa noted that “there should be no real surprise” in that active refineries like Dangote Refineries are consuming most of Nigeria’s crude stock due to the Naira-for-Crude deal. For the LCCI president, it would be a “surprise if non-oil exports are not growing”.

“If you spend $1,000, you get a lot more naira than what you were getting before the unification of the exchange rate. And most countries do that when they want to promote exports. They tactically devalue the currency to promote exports,” he stated, explaining the logic behind Nigeria moving away from depending on oil.

Idahosa welcomed the non-oil-leaning economy trend, stating, “We have to be an export-led economy, a non-oil export-led economy, instead of an import-led economy. Various governments have promised to support exports. They take actions such as setting up export processing terminals and offering incentives for exports by the Nigerian Export Promotion Council.

LCCI’s president noted that the country’s concern should be whether Nigeria’s non-oil exports are growing fast enough. Any strong economy in the world must be a significant exporter of goods and services. That’s the only way to keep the currency of any country strong.”

Similarly, the Director of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, attributed the non-oil export performance to the Federal Government’s economic reforms. He stated, “What has happened is that as a result of the depreciation in the currency, returns on exports, non-oil exports, have increased significantly. Because our products are now much cheaper for other countries in Africa to buy.”

Yusuf noted that Nigerian products, and in some cases, manufactured products, are buoyed by an increasing demand due to the depreciation of the naira. “Many manufacturers have testified to the fact that a lot of their goods are now getting out of the country and are seeing more demand or being exported, maybe not directly by themselves, but by some of their distributors,” he added.

The exchange rate depreciation has provided an incentive for exports, while oil earnings have dropped. According to CPPE’s director, the oil earnings are due to one of two reasons: the fact that Nigeria’s oil output has dropped or the oil price has also dropped.

Intra-African trade is a discourse among industry watchers, from the Afreximbank Annual Meetings 2025 and the 2025 West Africa Economic Summit, both held in Abuja, Nigeria.

Speaking in a TV interview on Tuesday, the Executive Vice President of Intra-Africa Trade & Export Development Bank, Afreximbank, Kanayo Awani, said, “Intra-Africa trade has to be front and centre of the conversation for Africa’s sovereignty to be able to take our destiny into our hands.”

These industry and trade meetings are centred around calls for regional integration to implement trade windows such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and workable cross-border payment solutions to improve transactions.

A member of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria council, John Aluya, explained that African trade remains slow since not all African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement. Nigeria became the 34th State Party to ratify the AfCFTA agreement on December 15, 2020. Only 48 countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement.

Aluya expressed optimism that African countries “have a lot to do within ourselves” by the time they get on board to trade together with little to no barriers: “We have a lot to do with ourselves in terms of food. There is famine in some parts of Africa, and we can export food. We can ship food to them as a part of the AfCFTA.”

Aluya hailed Afreximbank’s Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as an initiative which builds on the potential of intra-African trade. He described it as a good initiative, stating, “Once the PAPSS becomes effective, it would be the easiest thing. Whether the country has foreign exchange or not, you can buy or sell. You don’t need dollars or sterling or any other currency. You sell in your currency, and you get paid in your currency.

According to the MAN council member, African traders who deal across different countries will not need to open a line of credit which goes through a third or middle country, such as London in the United Kingdom. Rather, both African countries will have the ability to confirm any lines of credit, which will save businesses the added cost of trade from a one per cent confirmation fee.