‘Nigeria’s Inflation Rate to Hit 30% by December 2023’
Stears, a leading economic analysis and data-driven insights provider, on Tuesday announced its market-leading Pan-African inflation forecasts, projecting Nigeria’s annual inflation rate to climb steadily until year-end, closing the year at around 30 per cent, a level previously untouched in the country’s modern democracy.
According to the firm, the forecasts leaned on trusted econometric tools that consider a myriad of factors driving inflation, from general to country-specific dynamics.
By adopting a meticulous approach to forecasting, Stears said it is seeking to serve two fundamental goals, namely, ensuring the utmost precision in their inflation estimates and enabling users to simulate inflation scenarios based on unfolding real-world events.
The latest release aims to guide corporates, professionals, and policymakers in their short-to-medium term pricing, investment, and policy decisions. The inflation forecasts, spanning from October 2023 to December 2024, include both average and year-end predictions for 2023 and 2024.
Speaking on the the report, Stears’ Head of Insights, Fadekemi Abiru, expanded on Stears’ view on the drivers of Nigeria’s inflation rate, saying, “In September, we saw the exchange rate premium—the differential between official and parallel rates—rise to 25.2 per cent which is a significant increase from what it was in August. We expect this gap to keep widening and exerting further inflationary pressures unless we see significant dollar inflows into the economy. We have also had heavy and prolonged rainy season, which has affected harvests.”
She noted that following the recent release of Nigeria’s September 2023 inflation data, the country’s forecasts have been prioritised, with Kenya’s projections scheduled for early November and forecasts for other African nations coming in early 2024.
In today’s complex economic landscape, reliable data is the linchpin for effective decision-making. With these forecasts, Stears aims to offer clarity, precision, and actionable insights into the intricate dynamics of inflation in Africa, particularly for those shaping economic policies and investment strategies.
The report is coming on the back on the recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics which revealed that the country’s consumer price index (CPI), which measures the rate of change in prices of goods and services, rose to 26.72 per cent in September 2023 — up from 25.80 per cent in the previous month.
The latest figure marks the ninth consecutive rise in the country’s inflation rate this year.
