Tax Reform Debate: Is Dogara Positioning Himself for Tinubu’s Vice Presidency in 2027?
By Adnan Mukhtar
The complex relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima appears to be fraying, revealing underlying tensions within Nigeria’s presidency since their inauguration on May 29, 2023.
The recent disagreements over tax reform highlight this disconnect. The proposed tax reforms have ignited debates among influential stakeholders, including President Tinubu, the Northern Governors’ Forum, and the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by Vice President Shettima.
President Tinubu is advocating for a derivation-based VAT model, which some Northern governors vehemently oppose, citing significant economic disparities among regions. They argue that such a reform could jeopardize less industrialized areas, preferring instead to maintain the current revenue-sharing system for greater equity.
In response to the controversy, the NEC, led by Shettima, recommended a withdrawal of the reform bills for more comprehensive consultations. However, President Tinubu remains determined to push ahead with legislative discussions, suggesting that modifications can be made later. This debate not only reflects a rift between promoting state financial autonomy and ensuring equitable development, but also underscores critical implications for governance, economic policies, and regional relations in Nigeria.
While there are arguments in favor of the tax reform, including its potential benefits, I refrain from discussing them extensively. The Northern elites and leaders have, to a large extent, failed their constituents by neglecting to address pressing economic challenges such as job creation, entrepreneurial development, and diversification. Rather than lament the proposed reforms, shouldn’t we focus on alternatives that can propel the North toward self-sufficiency?
It is perplexing to see governors expressing concern that the new tax proposal could hinder their ability to pay workers’ salaries. What efforts are these leaders making to enhance Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), foster innovation, and attract trade and investment? It’s noteworthy that, in more developed regions, many of these governors would likely struggle to qualify for positions even as local government chairpersons or councilors.
Interestingly, while many Northern political leaders are voicing discontent toward the tax bill, a few notable figures, including erstwhile anti-Tinubu critics like James Bwala and former House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara, are unexpectedly rallying in support of the reforms.
Dogara, perhaps keen to regain relevance, asserted that President Tinubu has already made significant contributions to the North, positing that no leader from the region in his lifetime has matched Tinubu’s achievements. He highlighted the establishment of the Ministry of Livestock as a pivotal opportunity for Northern economic growth. “This is not the time to label the president as anti-North,” Dogara implored, emphasizing that Tinubu’s accomplishments warrant recognition.
Recall that both Dogara and Bwala were prominent critics of Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket prior to the election. Their recent embrace of Tinubu and the reform agenda is nothing short of astonishing.
In politics, allegiances can shift surprisingly, but Dogara’s recent praise for Tinubu, after vocally opposing the latter’s candidacy based on religious affiliations, raises eyebrows. During a summit tagged ‘Meet the Church,’ he urged Christians not to waste their votes on APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, vehemently criticizing Tinubu for selecting Shettima as his running mate. Now, it seems he is vying for political relevance by aligning himself with the very administration he once condemned.
Many speculate that Dogara’s criticisms were motivated by his disappointment at not being chosen as Tinubu’s running mate. The change in his tone now appears to be a classic case of political maneuvering — a bid to secure a piece of the political pie, especially in light of the current hardships faced by Nigerians.
This shift sends a powerful message: the elite often prioritize personal interests under the guise of caring for the common man. Had Dogara been appointed as Tinubu’s campaign director instead of Simon Lalong, the narrative might have been vastly different.
Ultimately, one must wonder: Is Dogara’s newfound admiration for Tinubu a strategic move towards positioning himself as a prospective vice-presidential candidate in 2027? Could it lead to Shettima being sidelined, or are there other contenders from the North-East waiting in the wings?
Time will tell. The political landscape remains fluid, and we must continue to observe these developments closely.
*Adnan is a Public Affairs Analyst and writes from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.*
