Economists: Nigeria’s Poverty Rate Will Surpass W’bank 104 Million Estimate

In light of the recent hike in petrol prices and ongoing food supply challenges facing the country, economists have cautioned that the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line could soon surpass the 104 million projected by the World Bank for 2023.

The global bank had said the poverty rate in the country increased to 46 per cent in 2023 representing 104 million poor Nigerians.

Disclosing this in its Nigeria development update, titled, ‘Turning the Corner: From Reforms & Renewed Hope, to Results’, released in December last year, the World Bank said Nigeria’s poverty rate had risen from 40 per cent in 2018 to 46 per cent, as the number of poor people increased from 79 million to 104 million.

“Sluggish growth and rising inflation have increased poverty from 40 per cent in 2018 to 46 per cent in 2023, pushing an additional 24 million people below the national poverty line,” the World Bank said.

The report said the number of poor people in urban areas — more exposed to inflation — increased from 13 million to 20 million, while the number of poor people in rural areas rose to 84 million from 67 million within the same period.

The World Bank had predicted that the increase in poverty rate would be undone by the economic reforms shocked of President Bola Tinubu from the beginning of 2024 till 2026.

But speaking with Saturday PUNCH on Thursday, some economists said the policies and policy decisions of the current administration with the latest being the fuel price increase would definitely increase cool the number of poor Nigerians beyond the World Bank estimates because the salaries of most people had remained stagnated despite the surging inflationary trend.

A professor of Development Economics, Ekiti State University, Ado Ekiti, Taiwo Owoeye, said with the way the fuel price hike had jerked up transportation costs, prices of basic commodities of the poor people would worsen the inflationary pressures.

He said that with a 45 per cent hike, the new fuel price would have ripple effects on every aspect of the economy.

According to him, there has not been an onward increase in the salaries of workers, because while most states have yet to implement the N70,000 minimum wage, more Nigerians may find themselves in poverty very soon.

“Definitely, it will push more Nigerians into poverty. It is a 45 per cent increase in the price of fuel and that will affect other aspects of the economy. So, it will definitely put a lot of people below the poverty line,” he said.

Also in an interview with Saturday PUNCH, an agricultural economist from the Centre for Agricultural Development and Sustainable Environment at the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Tobi Awolope, said the latest fuel price hike would worsen the misery already afflicting the poor people in the aspect of food crisis.

When asked whether the recent fuel price hike and other related factors will jerk up the number of poor Nigerians to over 100 million, she said, “It’s very possible. Aside from the fuel price increase, there has been an irregular pattern of rainfall and climate change does have a long-term effect.”

SOURCE: PUNCH