Think the North will Just be Fine if Nigeria Breaks? It’s Time to Think Again
By Baba El-Yakubu
I was fortunate to read the recent insightful interview granted to Daily Trust Newspaper by the elder stateman, Alhaji Sani Zangon Daura. There are many memorable takeaways. My favourites are: his encounter with racism in London, tribalism in Lagos, his angst about money politics and fervent belief that northern Nigeria could sustainably move-on if Nigeria breaks. On the last point, he said that “people like us feel very strongly that it is better for us to part in peace than in pieces so that they would develop in their own way and we also develop in our way”. In his view, this is not an empty hope, because, “all factors of socio-economic growth are in the North – 80 per cent of the total landmass, two-third of the total population” and large and abundant deposits of minerals. These are the views of somebody who saw it all. He was already a state commissioner the year I was born. May be due to the generational gap; I have diametrically different views and I can vividly see the chilling reality facing Northern Nigeria (or Arewa), should Nigeria break up.
This is not a simple matter. Breaking up is a subject fraught with complexity and deep-seated anxieties in Nigeria. While the notion of secession or fragmentation has been intermittently discussed for decades, it remains a contentious and highly charged issue. The recent heated discussion about the possibility of Nigeria changing to regional governing system is a clear example. Among the regions that would face significant challenges in such a scenario, Arewa stands out due to its unique socio-economic and political landscape. The frightening reality that may follow the potential break up, encompasses a multitude of issues including economic vulnerability, social unrest, security challenges, and governance crises. To make the matter worst, this may happen under a leadership vacuum currently afflicting the region.
Let me start with the obvious challenge – our economic vulnerability. One of the critical economic challenges would be the loss of revenue from oil, which is predominantly found in the Southern region. Northern Nigeria, which has been heavily reliant on federal allocations funded by oil revenues, would need to find alternative sources of income. This could lead to economic stagnation or decline, increased poverty, and food insecurity. Moreover, without the financial support from the central government, the region might struggle to invest in necessary infrastructure and development projects. Nasarawa and Bauchi States may have abundant deposits of oil and gas; but the necessary fund to develop them may be impossible in an unstable area. Maybe, we could have hope on an uninterrupted food supply. Arewa is characterized by its agrarian economy, with agriculture being the primary source of livelihood for the majority of its inhabitants. About 70% of the population engages in agriculture. Despite the region’s estimated 80% landmass and vast arable land, agricultural productivity has been hampered by several factors, including outdated farming techniques, inadequate infrastructure, and periodic droughts. The breakup of Nigeria could exacerbate these issues, leading to severe economic distress.
It is easy to imagine that such distress will lead to social unrest and ethnic tensions. Arewa is home to a diverse array of ethnic groups, including the Hausa-Fulani, Kanuri, and various smaller tribes. The breakup of Nigeria could ignite latent ethnic tensions, leading to social unrest and conflict. The competition for resources, land, and political power among these groups could escalate into violence, further destabilizing the region. Additionally, the region has a significant population of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to ongoing conflicts with extremist groups like Boko Haram and banditry. The recent suicide bombing in Borno and spates of kidnapping show that these menaces are still alive. According to one source, the number of IDPs was estimated to be 3.3 million, in 2023. About half of them are in Borno State. A breakup could worsen the humanitarian crisis, as the new Arewa might lack the capacity to adequately address the needs of these displaced populations. Obviously, the dissolution of Nigeria will lead to a vacuum of power and weak security apparatus, thereby emboldening these and other criminal groups. Without the support and coordination of federal security forces, the new northern state might find it challenging to combat these threats effectively. As observed during the security crisis in Libya, the proliferation of arms and the rise of local militias could further complicate the security landscape. The Arewa government’s inability to control these groups could lead to widespread violence, making the region even more inhospitable and further hindering development efforts. Additionally, the destabilization of Arewa could have broader implications for regional security, potentially spilling over into neighboring countries and exacerbating transnational criminal activities.
The governance structure in Northern Nigeria has traditionally been intertwined with the federal system, relying on federal policies and resources. The breakup of Nigeria would necessitate the establishment of a new governance framework, which could prove to be a daunting task. The region would need to create new institutions, legal systems, and administrative mechanisms to manage its affairs. There may be heated debate on application of Sharia law and the right of minority in the new country. Given the current challenges of corruption, inefficiency, and lack of transparency in governance, building a functional and effective government from scratch could be a Herculean task. There is also the risk of political instability as different factions vie for control in the power vacuum left by the dissolution of the federal structure. This could lead to prolonged periods of political turmoil, further delaying economic recovery and development.
The socio-cultural fabric of Northern Nigeria is complex and deeply rooted in tradition and religion. The breakup of Nigeria could disrupt this fabric, leading to a crisis of identity and social cohesion. As we are witnessing in the case of emirship power tussle in Kano State and attempt to further weakened the power of Sultan in Sokoto State, the fear of crisis of identity is already creating avoidable tension. The region is predominantly Muslim, and the interplay between religion and politics could take on new dimensions in an independent Arewa. Religious leaders and institutions, which play a significant role in the daily lives of the people, might gain even more influence in the absence of a secular federal government. This could lead to the implementation of stricter religious laws, potentially infringing on the rights of minority groups and leading to further social division. The balance between maintaining cultural traditions and embracing modern governance practices would be a delicate one, fraught with potential conflicts.
The breakup of Nigeria would not only affect Arewa as a new country internally but also its relations with neighboring countries and the international community. Arewa would need to establish diplomatic relations, negotiate trade agreements, and seek international aid and investment independently. This would require significant diplomatic effort and expertise, which might be in a short supply. The region’s proximity to the Sahel, which is already experiencing significant security and humanitarian challenges, could complicate its foreign policy. International partners might be hesitant to invest or engage with a newly formed, potentially unstable state. This could limit Arewa’s ability to integrate into the global economy and benefit from international support. The all-important Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a lifeline for any new country. For example, recently, the Saudi Arabian Minister Environment, Water and Agriculture led a powerful delegation to Nigeria on partnership in food and meat productions in Nigeria. The Minister was quoted to have said, “we do believe that Nigeria has some comparative advantages and the need to invest wisely in the agriculture, food sector, whereby we will be targeting the Nigerian market or exporting to the nearby countries”. Could this sentiment be the same for a new unstable Arewa?
The notion of fragmentation of Nigeria is gaining attention as a time the north is suffering from leadership crisis. Who will talk on behalf of the north? We do not have a group of selfless leaders who may squarely face the contemporary challenges and take us to the promise land. We lack individuals who have visions of new reality, the courage to pursue it and the personal integrity to convince a critical mass of northerners to follow them. Followers need leaders and more importantly, leaders need followers to operationalize their vision. Arewa has bigger part of Nigeria’s landmass and its largest population. These may have no tangible benefits if we remain rudderless. As Alexander the Great famously said, “I am not afraid of an arm of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion”.
The desire to be independent and do-it-alone may be alluring. I understand the views expressed by Alhaji Zangon Daura. But the ugly reality is that the north has no leadership that could take us an inch forward towards a prosperous Arewa that is better than the current Nigeria. The potential breakup of Nigeria poses a chilling reality for us in the north – encompassing a wide array of economic, social, security, governance, and international challenges. The region’s reliance on federal support, its socio-economic vulnerabilities, and the existing security threats paint a grim picture of what could transpire. Addressing these challenges would require unprecedented levels of coordination, innovation, and resilience from the people and leaders of Northern Nigeria. None of these is readily available. Rather than caging ourselves into the sentiments of 1960s, the focus should remain on strengthening national unity and addressing the underlying issues that may lead to social tension. Only through collective effort and inclusive governance can Nigeria hope to avert such a dire scenario and build a future that benefits all its regions and peoples. We have been a stabilizing force in Nigeria. Northerners should always turn the other cheek and then the first cheek as a sacrifice for a united and prosperous Nigeria.
Baba El-Yakubu is the PTDF-Professor of Chemical Engineering at Ahmadu Bello University and Member of Arewa Economic Forum
