Trade To Drive Growth In August – CBN Survey

The retail and wholesale trade sector will drive business expansion in August, according to expectations from firms.

The statistics department of the Central Bank of Nigeria disclosed this in its business expectation survey report. The survey was conducted in July.

Part of the report read, “The analysis of businesses with expansion plans in August showed that the wholesale/retail trade sector indicates the highest disposition to expand with an index 46.3 points;

“Construction sector had an index of 45.0 points; agric/services sector had an index of 43.4 and manufacturing sector had 39.7 points.”

At -7.9 index points, it stated that the overall confidence index indicated respondents’ pessimism on the overall macro economy in the month of July.

However, it added, respondents were optimistic in their outlook for August with a confidence index of 33.7.

Furthermore, they expressed optimism in the overall business outlook in September 2020 and January 2021 as shown in a greater confidence of the economy, at 45.5 and 62.4 index points respectively.

Respondent firms’ opinions on the volume of business activities (47 points) indicated a favourable business outlook for August 2020.

They also hoped to employ in the next month as the outlook was positive at 12.3 points.

Respondents were also optimistic about the volume of business activity and employment outlook index in the next two and six months as all indexes were positive.

The break down by sector showed that wholesale/retail trade had the highest prospect for employment in the next month, with an index of 16.4 points followed by manufacturing sector (14.6 points) and agric/services sector (3.1 points).

Respondent firms expected the naira to depreciate in July but to appreciate in August, next two months and next six months, as their confidence indices stood at -14.6, 3.0, 16.5 and 49.4 index points respectively.