Global Air Transport Revenue Loss Increases To $252bn

The International Air Transport Association says the expected impact of the coronavirus on global air transport has risen to $252bn.

IATA updated its analysis of the revenue impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry on Tuesday from the previous analysis of $113bn revenue loss made on March 5.

“Owing to the severity of travel restrictions and the expected global recession, IATA now estimates that industry passenger revenues could plummet $252bn or 44 per cent below 2019’s figure. This is in a scenario in which severe travel restrictions last for up to three months, followed by a gradual economic recovery later this year,” the association said.

IATA said its previous analysis was before countries around the world introduced sweeping travel restrictions that largely eliminated the international air travel market.

The Director-General of IATA, Alexander de Junaic, said, “The airline industry faces its gravest crisis. Within a matter of a few weeks, our previous worst case scenario is looking better than our latest estimates. But without immediate government relief measures, there will not be an industry left standing.

“Airlines need $200bn in liquidity support simply to make it through. Some governments have already stepped forward, but many more need to follow suit.”

According to the association, the latest analysis envisions that under this scenario, severe restrictions on travel are lifted after three months.

IATA said, “The recovery in travel demand later this year is weakened by the impact of global recession on jobs and confidence. Full year passenger demand declines 38 per cent compared to 2019.

“Industry capacity (available seat kilometre or ASKs) in domestic and international markets declines 65 per cent during the second quarter ended 30 June compared to a year-ago period, but in this scenario recovers to a 10 per cent decline in the fourth quarter.”